TSXV:NILI - Post Discussion
Post by
Squid69 on Jan 08, 2025 12:16pm
Surge Nili
IRHello #NILI - #Lithium Market Update from SP Angel - Morning View: Lithium market steady after China proposes export ban on cathodes and processing technology: - Lithium prices have remained largely unchanged since reports of new Chinese export bans in the battery metal space. - Last week, the China Ministry of Commerce filed a notice mentioning potential export bans on battery and lithium processing-related technologies. - There will be a consultation period through to February 1st 2025. - The battery technology restrictions mentioned include: - Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries - Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate Batteries - Phosphate-based cathode precursor preparation technology - Downstream lithium processing and smelting restrictions mentioned include: - Spodumene-based lithium extraction for lithium carbonate production - Spodumene-based lithium extraction for lithium hydroxide production - Metallic lithium and lithium alloy preparation technology - DLE from brines - Includes adsorbent materials and integration of adsorption and membrane systems - Purified lithium solution preparation techniques - The consultation process follows similar restrictions implemented on germanium and gallium, graphite and antimony. - Tensions are escalating between Xi’s China and the US, with the Pentagon adding battery maker and Tesla supplier CATL to a list of military-linked Chinese firms. - However, spodumene prices remain largely anchored around the $800/t mark and carbonate prices are struggling to climb over $10,000/t. - This likely reflects an ample supply outlook over the coming few years. - Whilst consensus forecasts suggest lithium surplus in 2025, analysts see this shrinking in comparison to 2024 following several lossmaking operations coming offline. - BMI forecasts the 2025 lithium price at US$10,400/t and S&P Global sees it at $10,566/t. - Analyst forecasts remain conservative owing to the availability of quickly accessible swing-supply from China’s lepidolite and spodumene operations in Zimbabwe and China. - Major 2025 supply additions are expected from China, Argentina, Mali, and Brazil. - Australian operations are expected to keep supply flat and remain at risk of further care and maintenance announcements owing to their higher cost base. - We see Wodgina and Mount Marion as particularly vulnerable to further capacity reductions, with MinRes’ balance sheet remaining under pressure.
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