Post by
urai58 on May 08, 2021 2:52am
My personal thesis ...
Good Mornig everyone,
we are back in business. After the price correction to CAD 0.47 from mid April 2021, we are now back in the 80 zone. The business case is excellent (see Arlington Note).
My personal thesis: Pala Investment is building a position.
Insert: I know the Cobalt 27 story; but please don't look back; at the time, the dramatic collapse in cobalt prices was partly to blame for the dramatic drop in Cobalt 27's share price and the unfavorable takeover bid from Pala Investment.
I have looked at the whole business case again. Very central is the so called Tax-Holliday until and with 2026. I think for Pala - and also for us - it would be a super-invest, if Pala would enter for 60m$. The CAPEX debt could be paid back by the end of 2021. And then 5 years, 11.3% of the FCF would flow; at today's nickel prices that would be more than 36m$ p.a. Of course there would be a dilution and we would have plus/minus twice the number of shares. But our diluted share would be about 18mUSD p.a. with 86m shares this means just under 22m CAD, or 0.25 CAD p.a. FCF - for five year, Total: 110m CAD
And Pala Investment would have this capital:
https://www.globallegalchronicle.com/pala-investments-65-mil...
urai58
Comment by
Talchior on May 08, 2021 9:02am
in my opinion (as explained few days ago) with the cashflow of ramu, the debit can be paid in 2023 and then enjoy the tax holiday for 3 years. The current rates is under evaluated and would be a pity to sold it to Pala.
Comment by
urai58 on May 10, 2021 10:21am
I have no problem with your view at all. The key lies in the price of nickel. urai58
Comment by
Popeye82 on May 23, 2021 9:22am
Don't know if you already know that. If not, I would read https://mcusercontent.com/bcf952a3fa8185f9a112ba741/files/f7cf6109-c3d6-4e28-a5f0-50f18d835452/Nickel_28_First_Final.pdf I have No Interest in that Company, Many, Many Other Stakes to manage.
Comment by
Michiel on Nov 18, 2021 5:42pm
@urai58. Hello, can you explain me the connection between Pala and Nickel28. I follow this action since a year but i never heard about Pala. Thx for the information.
Comment by
Michiel on Nov 19, 2021 2:56am
@urai58. Thx a lot for this interesting information!!! Grtz
Comment by
Michiel on Nov 21, 2021 4:30am
@goldfathfinder. Hello, I follow your analysis. But why didn t they buy any shares already. The buyback period ends next year July 1! Impossible to buy more then 7.000.000 shares in this short period.
Comment by
GoldPathfinder on Nov 21, 2021 3:20pm
"Nickel 28 is pleased to announce the receipt of its first free cash flow from Ramu, a US$3.2 million payment, as further detailed below." That is very good news! News that can be told more. Which was my point....
Comment by
Michiel on Nov 21, 2021 5:01pm
@goldfathfinder. I understand your point. They could have made some more noice about it......