CGX Energy Inc V.OYL

Manipulation Game Theory....

[SheDrills]

I can't get this situation out of my head so I put my game theory hat on and this is what I've come up with....

1. Some savvy $CGXEF $OYL.V shareholders sold their positions or maybe even just 15% of their positions early knowing they can add back with rights or even subscribe for more. Maybe they moved some of this money to $FECCF $FEC.TO which is why the inverse correlation.
2. This created selling pressure especially as many newbies still don’t understand the rights offering.
3. Shorts saw their opportunity to pounce, dove in as the stock fell...hell, they were still borrowing shares yesterday.
4. This seems like a risky strategy for shorts given how close the well is to target zones UNLESS they have hedged their losses already by buying up as many $OYL-RT.V (the rights) as possible on the open market.
5. $OYL-RT.V is continuing to hold value despite these rights being higher than the common stock ATM...I think that’s because our shorts are buying them as protection. Looks like at least 700k rights have changed hands so far.
6. This is also why the common shares should rebound as soon as the rights expire or as soon as the shorts feel like they can’t buy enough rights to cover.

 

If anyone else has theories would love to hear them.

[Ermosp]

Conspiracy requires a whole lot of coordination and competence that I haven't seen from CGX elsewhere. I think it's more likely that there is a sell off due to the rights offering and this Cfo action is just a random event. the more concerning possibility is that canadian insider trading laws are so poorly enforced that the cfo did see some news and sold anyway. We'll see what other

[waitingstill]

Yes shedrills, what you have written makes sense. The shorts always seem to be waiting for opportunities and CGX gave it to them in spades. Once the SP was driven down under the Rights price (either by FEC intentionally or by some large holder selling likely through RBC), it is the perfect set up. Shorts can buy Rights for 3c and then sell short as much as they want knowing that any loss is capped

[westcanpride]

Wow. What a manipulating bunch of folks working at CGX/Frontera/Catalyst Capital. Let's make no mistake, this whole drop in share price was coordinated by Catalyst Capital via shorting the stock and they are now taking it too a whole new level.... Over what... ~40million new shares at what should be a new baseline of $1.63? No way the market was that upset over the news. Catalyst just knew