CGX Energy Inc V.OYL

I'd like to direct this to Shedrills...

[docsdrillers1]

I enjoy your posts and follow you on Stockwits and recently listened to your last Podcast.

I've been around since pre Boat incident and still believe in this stock.

I want to simplify the argument of valuation by just focussing on the potential value of the Port and what the share price would be if we only owned the Port..to me that is the absolute downside even if we get a duster which i don't anticipate...it's the Port that lets me sleep at night..so correct me if i'm wrong..

You mentioned down the road revenues if i recall at close to 350 Million..not sure how many years down the road that was.But what caught my attention is that Port revenues are usually calculated at a 20-30 multiple.

So shouldn't you be able to come up with an approxiamte share price in a chart form  based on revenues at different points down the road..it should be a simple calculation of total revenues times the trading multiple for that sector divided by the current Share Float.

i think this is worth doing and it may put investors at ease knowing that even in a 100% worse case scenario on the OIL exploration side CGX still has some reasonable built in value that i venture is still higher than the current share price.

[SheDrills]

When I looked at the port based on their 2021 projections and a 25x multiple it gives about $1 share price for the port in 2025...but much is changing and I'm hoping the 2025 projections are exceeded so as always...we wait and see.  Like you, the port and the dramatic regional need for that port is what allowed me to take such a large position given the unknowns on execution risk offshore

[SheDrills]

When I say $1 I'm mean USD 

[docsdrillers1]

So it seems it's fair to say that the share price is woefully undervaluing the company as it's only attributing .35 for all the Corentyne Oil prospects..that is ridiculous.. 1.00 US for conservative Port Revenues  and a share price of 1.71 a mere .36 cents for any possible down the line value of the Oil assets.

[tiger77]

Doc, that is the logical answer but as we all know who have been here a long time CGX is not, and does not follow common sense logic.  That being said I believe we have the goods and I believe we will be at new highs very soon.  My shares are listed and available at $7 currenly for both OYL and CGXEF.  GLTA!

[docsdrillers1]

Don't us longs know it..anything and everything that can possibly go wrong is something we have all been through multiple times. You can't pry any of my shares off of me:) as i do believe much better times are ahead. Prior to the Port component i was worried about throwing more money at what vcould have been a duster followed by Bankrputcy. With the Port i feel that there is some solid

[Ermosp]

The port has no value to cgx if it doesn't have the money to build it.  Can they get a loan to finish it? Otherwise it depends on them getting cash - which means a farmout.  I don't know how people can place any faith in it- It's been delayed for 2 years now cause cgx is broke. If Wei doesn't hit, there's an open question of whether it will be finished and

[Frank007]

The fund are already in place now ...the only money needed is to purchase the cranes ...which will easly be finance d ....

[jada13]

There are many goverment people with shares in CGX that want big money out of thier investment.Good times ahead, a deal of some sort will be cut with someone.Your guess is as good as mine to whom it maybe.

[a2bman]

RE: Jada. finally someone who understands Guyana.  Other than the bribe takers that exxon has paid off, the big money the government officals want will mostly come from stocks like this.  They're not ones to wait around for exxon to sp to rise. Gotta love Guyana! imo

[stark15]

Jada, a2bman et al.... I have said for years.....the reason u want CGX stock over Fec stock is....CGX CANNOT be bought or 'taken out' by Fec, why?  Because its in the original partner agreement..."CGX WILL REMAIN A SERARATE ENTITY".....CGX has many government people who indirectly own CGX stock and have for MANY years....they will not 'settle'....they want to be

[a2bman]

Stark- 100%  always more to a stock than meets they eye.  I know Guyana well before oil was around.  Still lots of gold to be found  LOL

[Frank007]

I can see that ...fec is a manipulted p o s 

[AnMar]

Stark - you are clearly delusional and need to check your objectivity, or lack thereof, for it will certainly ruin you financially - unless you get lucky here. You are just speculating and cannot provide any verifiable proof regarding local/government ownership. I challenge you to show us all proof of what you claim. It seems like you are suggesting the good honest government folks, who may have a

[ljmorin]

Stark is right, anyone that has been here long enough knows this to be a fact. What do want Anmar people to name names. get real!! That were in public office. It's Banana Republic even more so back then. Just the way business is done.  We would have been long long gone long long ago without some people on the inside, Even though we CGX spent millions and won in court for border

[Frank007]

Just wondering where all the cash came from to keep the lights on.....I know that it was frontera who gave the Guyana $7 million for Covid relief in 2020 ....this show seems to be funded by them...yet it gets beat down....heck frontera 5 years ago was a $30 stock. ...book value  today $19.50.     Yet here it is with 2/3 of the corentyene cosession  and nada ..zip ..somethings

[ljmorin]

Well if it smells like it. Make up your own mind I guess. is it a Duck or Buck. You decide!!  

[Mat1791]

FEC = EM play with a spec component CGX = pure spec

[AnMar]

legitmoron - how about you tell us all why your banana republic insiders required the relinquishment of the Demerara block?

[ljmorin]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[ljmorin]

Hahahaha, You have no idea if the history of this at all. And I'm not going to educate you. Maybe another long long will fill you in but it ain't gonna be this one. Lol Have a lovely day and GLTA, It go time now.    

[westcanpride]

Hi Shedrills, What made you give the port a 25x multiple? Almost no oil company these days trades at anything greater than 15x mutliple relative to their P/E. Hell, many companies these days are trading less than 10x P/E. Not that I agree with market sentiment regarding this, but that's the world we live in.  Thanks. 

[docsdrillers1]

Here is a list of all Industries and the multiples they trade at. Since i'm not exactly sure which applies to what CGX will provide at the port i'll leave it to you to let our group know which category or categories suits us best. https://eqvista.com/price-to-earnings-pe-ratios-by-industry/

[SheDrills]

Ports in emerging markets w/in tax exclusion zones often trade w/ 25 or higher multiples.  Look at ports in India & New Zealand.  As the market develops then the multiple subsides.  The real issue w/ the mltiple is that we only have 1 relevant institutional owner w/ a stake so high it prevents other serious funds from coming in.  So the real question I have is how will

[SheDrills]

When I consider a 25x that's only for the port.  I would love to see Frontera hit a pe of 10 compared to Hess over 20.  But I think they'll need to FID a discovery first.  CGX Energy would likely be absorbed prior to then or maybe just become a port company.  Only time will tell.  That's why it's a spec play...too many unknowns prior to funding &

[westcanpride]

Thank you for the replies SheDrills. I can see your reasoning. I think the whole debate around Frontera/CGX and respective share prices were just summed up in your last two posts as well.  Like you post out loud, how does Frontera levarage this opportunity? As most know, a FID is sorely needed before any work into drilling production/injector wells can occur... as we can see from Exxon JV

[Frank007]

Spec play ....has everyone forgot or do not know about Puerto Bahia ...tossing off free cash flow now   Or the tank farm ...or pipiles all free cash flow positive ....other the politics in Columbia I personal do no think is all a spec play

[SheDrills]

When emerging markets turn around Frontera shoud fly...again...fund flows were in risk off mode for anything associated w/ Colombia last year and it's more thinly traded than CGX Energy.