Post by
2021Gamble on May 15, 2021 8:06am
weekend coffee morning - deep dive into ANON trading
Lets start of by saying, yes, i am a shareholder, cash, tfsa and rrsp accounts only - so no margin account for me = no short selling; not even options allowed...
As has been pointed out by a certain someone on the BB, ANON has been doing a bunch of selling of late, both into the Bid, but also on the Ask for purchase (although I'm extremely grateful they keep filling my orders)
I am enjoying my 1.7 litres of coffee this Saturday morning, and this is my deep dive into ANON....pour a real drink, and enjoy....
First, from the 4/28/21 MD&A page 11. Sedar docs never post well for me, but I cleaned up a little. Suffice to say, 27,603,163 warrants outstanding per the last MD&A, and they begin to expire next week (May 19th) . By July 22, a total of 16,126,470 warrants are set to expire!! I hope they do expire, as it would represent a 30% dilution.....but....alas...not on topic.
Summaryofwarrantsoutstanding:
ExpiryDate Number of Warrants Weighted Average Exercise Price($)
Warrants May 19, 2021 1,250,000 0.15
Finder’s warrants May 29, 2021 66,720 0.15
WarrantsJuly 22, 2021 14,332,000 0.15
Finder’s warrantsJuly 22, 2021 477,750 0.15
WarrantsDecember 11, 2021 6,056,627 0.20
Finder’s warrantsDecember 11, 2021 177,200 0.20
WarrantsJanuary 3, 2022 1,858,666 0.20
WarrantsMay 29, 2022 3,384,200 0.20
Total27,603,163
So why is this important? Two reasons off the top.
By keeping the share price depressed, there is a "hope" that the warrants will be extended - after all, we do see this happen all the time especially on the venture
Second, warrants limit loss potential on short selling, by limiting the loss of a short seller to the cost of the warrant share...in this case 0.15. This means they get to play both sides, almost risk free.
So, is this an organized event on PHD. My research, analysis and watching says "YES"
Some more background. There was a rather large PP last year, 15,632,000 shares at 0.08 in two tranches, at 0.08; with 0.15 1 year warrants - (this was a 40% dilution from 40M shares to 55.M). The closing of these PP shares, coincide with an uptick in ANON activity. Further, as we approached the required 4 month hold period, ANON activity upticked again.....and the share price fell by 0.05 - a rather large % increase. As we approach warrant expiry, anon activity upticked again (in the hope the warrants will be extended), but also, they "want" and perhaps evern "need" a PP at a depressed share price in order to cover their shorts - which seem to be substantial.
The hope imo is: That they will get their warrants extended....that they can force the next PP at a lesser amount than 0.08 (in fact, someone just posted they want 0.06)...that as they say...is proof in the pudding, that there are certain posters here on the stockhouse BB, deliberately bashing, misleading, and deflecting..to assist their cause.
so ANON trading activty. This is "V" only, and does not include the ATS. Lets look at ANON, trading activity over the last 18 months (COFFEE!!!!)
The following is ANON trading activity "top line" share trade activity. Simply date, purchases, sells, net activity - but is truly "telling"
5 months 1/1/20 - 5/31/20 +36,700 - 1511500 -1144000
June 2020 +285500 -785500 -500000
July 2020 +356500 -1062000 -705500
Aug 2020 +310500 -790000 -479500
Sept 2020 +257000 -627000 -370000
Oct 2020 +183000 -934500 -751500
Nov 2020 +377000 -227500 -1898000
Dec 2020 +296000 -1744500 -1448500
2021 - by "week"
1 +99000 -117000 -18000
2 +17000 -219000 -202000
3 +71000 -316500 -245500
4 +233400 -460500 -227100
5 +10000 -130500 -120500
6 +15500 -48000 -32500
7 +5000 -59000 -54000
8 +34000 -26500 +7500
9 +20000 -77500 -57500
10 +15000 -62000 -47000
11 +2000 -4000 -2000
12 +5000 -62000 -57000
13 0 -16000 -16000
14 +11000 -17000 -6000
15 nothing by anon
16 +1000 -174000 -173000
17 +41000 -61000 -20000
18 +859000 -1148000 -289000
19 +8000 -680000 -672000
6/1/20 - 5/15/21 total +3512000 -11897000 -8384600
roughly half of the PP....makes you go....hmmmmm......
that's what I discovered (barring a typo or two or three - it is early). 1 week with a net share purchase since January 2020, 1 week with zero activity (a week off - it was March break after all - not joking - no activity on March break), and all others net sells.
Where did these shares come from ? Private Placement - I see no "early warning reports" for PHD - which means no "single" person owns these shares. However, given it appears highly likely they are acting in concert with one another, ownership of over 5.5 million shares (10%) combined- as a group, by law, would require an early warning report to be filled. Assuming they aren't breaking that securtiy law....
From the above, you will notice significant ANON trade activty once the shares and warrants passed their "hold" period. You will notice again, on the BB that there is current "bashing, inuendo, about ANON trading, and a 0.06 PP coming up). This is their objective - depress the share price, play the short game; with warrants to cover and to limit risk.
So what is the problem.
The warrants are expiring beginning next week.
There has been no hint that a PP is coming
The company has stated "in the zoom video", that "the hope" is to move to stockpile processing without a PP being required, as this is in the best interest of PHD shareholders - WOW, That is fantastic PHD mgmt!! congrats to you!! Shareholder first thinking ... I love that!!
And that becomes the rub. These "players", have bet on a warrant extension. These "players" have bet on another PP at 0.06, along with cheap warrants to cover their short sales.
And along comes Gamble.....picking up over a 1/2 million shares just recently that they desperately need and want....gotta love those O&G stocks eh? Dividends, capital gains...gotta love it....
So, yup, ANON is selling. They are selling PP shares to depress the share price. They are selling both owned shares, while also shorting more shares to keep the share price down (40% share price decrease since the last fall), despite fantastic assay results (although, you need to do that research on your own, becasue you will only see bashing and deflecting here on the BB)
The problem....those of us (and there are a substantial number of purchasers across multiple trading houses) buying shares that they desperately want and need.
They will "deflect, argue, post nonsense and giberish" so that people don't realize the amazing amount of gold that is in the stockpile - I posted some basic math assumptions earlier this week - which these "bashers, deflecters" will not discuss, nor provide their own estimates beyond generalities and overall negative talk about PHD. And they have certainly refused to answer the question "are you short on PHD?"
So, good morning PHD investors (past, current and future). This is your morning deep dive into recent ANON activity. I thank publically here, those that have DM'ed me a thanks - and those publilcally as well that have thanked me. Obviously there is work involved, and I appreciate that it does not go unnoticed.....
So enjoy your day and your weekend folks. Frost looks like it might be done now, and that'll move us into nicer weather.
cheers PHD <future millionaires?>....one can hope after all.....