Post by
ark88 on Dec 05, 2023 10:39am
Interesting
Amazing that now we get the fuller picture on what happened. One has to ask why now?
There's an element of contrition in this letter. Why?
POETs advantage, admittedly only by management, has always been about Scalability, Cost and Performance Advantages......one thing never alluded to but finally noted in this letter is ADOPTABILITY.
We see now that POET doesn't have revenue because its having difficulty getting the industry to adopt its technology. The only path forward was a JV with SPX in China. Even this path would lead to limited adoption by only "niche" players, as noted in the letter. Moreover, it had no future beyond the 100, 200 and 400G optical engines.
So what now? Suresh in order to be relevant going forward, POET needs to modify and adapt to EMLs which is the industry standard. POET uses DMLs for the 100, 200 and 400G engines but it turns out EML are better suited for higher speeds, 800G and beyond. Doesn't this remind everyone of the GaAs fiasco.
So this begs the question, what are the issues here as they pursue the 800G+ market? What happens to POETs advantages, Scalability, Cost and Performance advantages? How quickly can they modify the POET interposer?
Its as if we are now back to square one, with all the inherent risks and unknowns.
This letter is like a revelation of the risks associated with holding this investment. An I told you so letter, in case things may not work out. IMHO
Comment by
pennyflipping on Dec 05, 2023 10:44am
Interesting? I'd actually say predictable...
Comment by
maestrodrumboe on Dec 05, 2023 11:22am
Very well said.. Suresh' address to the Noise today, served to create (as our silent friend would say).More FUD .financing was the primary issue of concern to most SH and Shurresh chose to dodge and downplay the most important question mark, moving forward. Now back to enjoying my Xmas music.now playing Mariah Carey ,,"last Xmas"
Comment by
ark88 on Dec 05, 2023 11:33am
Why not share the joy...tis the season.
Comment by
maestrodrumboe on Dec 05, 2023 12:40pm
Is that slide current or does it show graphs and figures compiled back to 2022?
Comment by
lscfa on Dec 05, 2023 12:52pm
See slide 35, revenue forecast for SPX... https://poet-technologies.com/docs/presentations/Business-Update-Conference-Call-Apr-2022.pdf
Comment by
ark88 on Dec 05, 2023 12:55pm
The market in China may be big but do you know if or why POETs competitors are not there doing the same thing? Regardless, POET still has to develop the optical engine with EML. I have no idea how difficult this is, but if they are unable or are able but at a less advantageous level then what of the future for this company.
Comment by
lscfa on Dec 05, 2023 12:58pm
Poet forecasts SPX revenue to be $180M to $300M in 5 yrs, which is just 5%-10% market share. That's a lot of margin for error built in in case the market does not grow that fast or competition surfaces.