Post by
Tree2tree on Nov 30, 2024 11:04am
Zero
The chances of pouring gold in 2025 are zero. The chances of ever pouring gold at Kiniero are totally unknown.
Quarterly report is out. The gold price has helped, but the financing of over $100 million is already running out. They have slowed down activities in Guinea due to lack of funds. Yes there is (or was) $70 million in cash, but almost the same in short-term payables. Taurus has decided not to fund the project, they just want their money back. So now RBX is looking for $175 million in loans to continue the work! Do you know anybody with $175 million who would prefer to invest it in Guinea than anywhere else? And they are still working on the feasibility study, so what investor would loan money to an undefined project. And of course there is still no agreement with the Guinea government, something they don't even talk about any more.
Nampala looks profitable on paper, but the cash generated mostly goes back in the pit, for waste stripping and other 'capital' costs that are not really capital. And there are no buyers for Nampala. They even admit the reason - nobody wants to invest in Mali. But Guinea is totally different, of course..
PS it's mentioned in the report that their private 'gold trading company' was previously buying the gold produced at 80% of the world price, but the Mali government has put a stop to that. So I guess that was the trick they were using to hide revenue and avoid taxes. It didn't work. So now the Guinea government is equally aware of the type of tricksters they are dealing with.
Given the heavy odds against the mine going ahead, and the heavy cash required, RBX's market cap should be no more than $100 million - less than a third of the current trading price. This is just my opinion, I may have got it all wrong. Time will tell.