Reconnaissance Energy (Africa) Ltd V.RECO

Damned Statistics

[Oregonduck]

Statistics indicates that there is 10 percent chance of success for finding oil at 8-2. However, the probability of recovery is 17 percent. So, the arithmetic sum of multiple probability distribution is still 10 percent for finding 138 million bbl of oil.

Three petrophysicists went drilling for oil. One missed finding any oil at 6-2, the second also missed at 6-1, and the third said I found oil at 8-2 based on statistical analysis. Lol

This binary bet will likely go from $1 billion to zero.

Reco said this "... for the well 8-2. The estimated unrisked gross prospective resource (P50 case) with a projected 17-per-cent primary recovery is 138 million barrels of oil for this well. Prospective resources are the arithmetic sum of multiple probability distributions."

[jimgeorge]

Ducky, the term "17% primary recovery" means that 17% of the total oil contained in the reservoir can be recovered under primary production (ie no pressure maintenance or water flooding).  It has nothing to do with probability and nothing to do with the chance of finding oil.  It's obviously a little early to be talking about a recovery factor when they haven't even

[Oregonduck]

Chicken or Egg situation ?? Tell it to Steinke. Lol Lol