Reitmans Ord Shs V.RET

Reitman during the last recession

[Torontojay]

In Fiscal 2008, which captured the earning season prior to the Great Financial Crisis (Dec 07), Reitmans achieved earnings per share of $1.61. Over the following 2 fiscal years, the company was still profitable, although as expected, earnings did decline to $1.21 and $0.98 for the fiscal 2009 and 2010 year. 

The share price reached a peak in May 2007 at around $24.95 and the share price troughed in February 2009 at $9.8. This shouldn't come as a surprise as pretty much every company tanked during the last recession. 

Final words: If the company can continue this momentum and prove that they can sustain these cash flows, then I don't see why we couldn't reach $10 a share even if we enter a recession. Reitmans today is comparable to that time period in terms of net income per share. In the last 12 months, Reitmans has delivered eps of ~ $1.258 and is likely to inch higher after Q4 results. 

My 2 cents worth.

[nozzpack]

BOC has halted its interest rate increase because we are in a very different economic environment than the US. The US has used the hegemony of  USD to export its debt to the rest of the world while pumping trillions into the US economy . This was also the case in the Great Recession of 2008. The US economy was devastated while the Canadian economy  kept chugging along. We are now

[Torontojay]

The Fed Funds futures market has rates peaking at 6%. Just over 58% of traders believe it will be higher than 5.5%.  Implied probability : < 5% =~ 3.23%  5% - 5.5% =~ 37.9%  5.5% - 5.75% =~ 20.08%  5.75% - 6 % =~ 32.41%  > 6% =~ 6.38%  https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html Tiff Macklem is

[nozzpack]

You must remember that high inflation in the last 2 years is largely a Western construct. In SE Asia For example , its 3.8 % in Malaysia and Vietnam 4.5% . These are not much different than 2022. I suspect that most of the clothes that RET sells are being made in SE Asia, not the US. So, cost pressures for those products would be modest and with container shipping costs down considerably , I