Reitmans Ord Shs V.RET

Bad news for the bears...

[flamingogold]

Inflation slayed. No hard landing. No recession. US rate cut now 100% in September with more to come after that.

The time has come for policy to adjust

[Torontojay]

Not  so fast. Recessions usually happen after they cut interest rates.  They cut in September 2007 and the recession started in December 2007.  They cut in January 2001 and the recession started in March of 2001.  They are halfway there but they still need to land the plane on its way down. Most of the time it's a hard landing.   

[savyinvestor333]

Ever hear of a touch and go?

[flamingogold]

TJ, you've been putting up historical stats forewarning of an impending recession for the last 2 years. You will be eventually right though, but no one can time a market. Anyone on the sidelines waiting for a reccessionary type selloff has missed incredible gains. With more to come. I won't be surprised if that first cut is a sell moment maybe even 10% down. But, the dip will be bought....

[Torontojay]

  I disagree with this.  Canada is already in a recession. The US is next after they begin cutting rates. Wait for more revisions to come in which we are beginning to see that the economy is not as strong as once thought. Almost 1 million fake jobs announced by the BLS and much more revisions expected to come on gdp.  The unemployment numbers don't lie. 

[flamingogold]

While some sectors are in pain (commercial real estate), I don't see a widespread recession underway. As I mentioned previously, a rolling recession yes but not market wide. Rates coming down over the next year will help smooth out the cracks.

[Torontojay]

The unemployment doesn't discriminate between sectors of the economy. You can call it whatever you want. A rolling recession with unemployment moving higher is simply called a recession in my books. 

[flamingogold]

Higher unemployment was the desired effect of central bankers to crush inflation without crushing the economy. I would say this is in progress and markets sit at records for that reason.

[TheCount11]

As defined by Beata Caranci, chief economist at TD, the most basic definition of recession is two consecutive quarters where there is a reduction in gross domestic product (GDP). This requires a certain laziness and carelessness on the part of the macro oracles.  Anyone who has played this game long enough knows its rigged.  CPI is a lie.  GDP is a story.  The old are living

[TheCount11]

So in a lot of senses our GDP is almost meaningless now.  That isn't 100% true but directionally right.  An important indicator is our money supply growth. GDP meant something in 2020 - 2023 because the change was drastic.