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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Renegade Petroleum Ltd V.RPL

TSXV:RPL - Post Discussion

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Post by deisman03 on May 18, 2013 1:14am

DEBT

I agree that debt is their poison at this point in time.

 

I don't agree that they will cut the divi or need to. There are other forces at work here, behind the scenes.

 

No, I don't know what they are or how they came about. I do know how easy it is for people that have never had huge amounts of money at their disposal to spend it excessively, because they don't really grasp the ramifications that the pot isn't bottomless.

 

That may or may not be what happened here.

 

It could also be that they believed so much in their abilities and business model that they were willing to gamble big, for a big win. Time will tell, whether they are right or wrong.

 

I honestly feel that if the divi is cut, 5% -50% the stock will lose half its current price overnight. Maybe that's why the stock price is climbing???? If the share price drops below a certain amount, the company will be sold for its assets to pay off the creditors. We, the shareholders, will come last.

 

I've seen it happen before, to relatively viable companies. This company, is dangerously close to just such a scenario. If the new BOD members aren't very careful, they could stumble this company into bankruptcy just on fear alone.

 

Don't feed the shorters with advocating a divy cut. That would be their ideal situation. They couldn't care less if they kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

Comment by 07wildwood on May 18, 2013 9:59am
Their credit facility is up for renewal May 31. Are the PWT lands worth more or less than they paid? That is the big question. If more then the bank line will be increased and couple that with the fact that first Quarter workovers on the acquired assets were about 5 mil and you have no more ceiling issues on cap ex. If less then GLTA. End of month tells the tale.
Comment by graffiti99 on May 18, 2013 1:03pm
That's good analysis. Over what timeframe is your calculation however? Is it possible that this 11.2 number is distorted because of the assets they purchased have not begun to produce the cash flow yet and you are taking the whole cost of the acquisition, but not forecasting a reasonable future cash flow? If so, I'm suggesting what will likely happen is that RPL will bring their best, most ...more  
Comment by lastpick on May 18, 2013 1:52pm
All good points and well presented. The timeframe I considered was 1Q13 financials for comparison of RPL, TBE  and CPG. Of course I would like to see the divy yield come down by increasing share price :>)
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