Atlas Salt Inc V.SALT

Realistic targets

[lovingu]

It is possible that SALT could get bought out over $3

[Crunchy2chew]

$3 would not be in the ball park. There is over a billion tons in the ground. Wholesale is $80/ton but lets say its $60 and lets say half a billion tons of salt.  at the reduced values that would be a buyout of under 1% of the reduced resource. The buyout cost would be paid back in under 3 years with a modest 5 million tons per year. the management would be crazy to sell. Dig into this

[lifegoeson]

Lovingu..... given all the metrics known today about the size of the resource and cost to produce per ton, and knowing how this is going to get evaluated with the ROI over a realistic time period, the overall value wil be discounted, thus a buyout in the $5 to $12 range may be possible.

[lovingu]

I was thinking $4 as the high end as time is clearly a factor on the value of money

[Scionxb777]

 I doubt Rowland Howe is going to sell out 73 billion dollars worth of salt for 300 million 

[Crunchy2chew]

Yup, management aint idiots.

[lovingu]

$73 Billion divided by what 100 years 200 years , you are over simplifying it,it will be based on how much they can make a year 

[Crunchy2chew]

So tell me where I am wrong.... Lets say a modest 7 million ton of product per year after a year or two of operation. Aasume a discount wholesale price $70/ton . Assume a profit after expenses of of 60% (I would bet it would be atleast this or more) 7 mil x $70 = $490 million x 0.6 = $294 million per year profit.  I know its a quick and dirty, does not include sales of consumer sized

[lovingu]

comparing SALT to Diamond fields run is like comparing dogs to pictures of dogs 2 very dfferent things , their share price was $4.5 on the first drill results it went to $13.50 (your thesis falls apart now showing clearly that assets was worth much more) share price falls to $11.50 a month later Jan 1995 when 2nd drill results are duds holes #7 and #8 took the share price over $20 in Feb 1995 

[Crunchy2chew]

If you say so bud.

[nedstar71]

Statements like these don't help as they are overly simplistic and could be misleading. Compass Minerals, owner of the largest salt mine in the world in Goderich (where Roland Howe used to be in charge) as well as numerous other mines entire market cap is $2 billion for everything they own. Buyout numbers like $50 a share being thrown around here yet nobody is willing to pay $2 on the open

[lovingu]

if someone actually bought SALT based on a person saying it will be bought out for $50 it is their issue not the posters, obviously $3 - $5 would be the high end but it is still a great return

[Crunchy2chew]

I remember hearing the same thing about voiseys bay when it was diamond mines and was in the explority phase.... just saying. Oh and yea dont buy anything unless you research yourself personally.

[nedstar71]

Exactly. Throwing around numbers like $50 a share just isn't remotely realistic.

[lovingu]

That $50 guy is just kidding around I would guess 

[GrinningClown]

He's not kidding. While I may not necessarily agree that it'll get for $50 Crunchy makes some pretty good points here

[nedstar71]

Yes he does. It's a shame such ridiculous and unrealistic buyout numbers take away from the believability of his other points.

[Crunchy2chew]

No i am not joking. This mine will disrupt a whole sector. It could be a game changer. Yes salt is not flashy like gold or nickel but there is serious money involved and a guaranteed market that is short on domestic production. We will see i guess.