Atlas Salt Inc V.SALT

finally... next steps...

[general360]

well, it was nice to finally see the registration.  looks super dense, will have to review in more depth.  good work team, assuming like they said, you'e been working behind the scenes ahead of everything... it does raise a question or 2 about what exactly it means to be 'mining commencing':

from the registration:

The operations phase of the Project will commence upon completion of construction and associated commissioning, with initial (capital development) mining commencing in Q4 2025 and extending to approximately Q2 2029. This will be followed by the installation of underground infrastructure, after which mine production will ramp up to commercial production levels in Q4 2029 and extend for an operational period of at least 34 years.

end of registration quote..

funny little gap b/w Q2-29 and Q429; what exactly is the underground infrastructure that is installed in 2 quarters/6mo that ramps up to commercial production?

the FS i thought talked about starting at 2.5mt? then ramping up to 3.5?  i'll have to go back and check those numbers but it was a scale up.  i'm wondering what exactly are we starting at produing in Q425 vs 4 years later Q2/29 to Q429. and when exactly would one be able to satisfy any offtake agreements?  do they even do offtake agreement for 4+ years from now? does that make valuation murky? i could see a big difference in numbers...

figured we'd go higher on this news but meh, what do i know? makes me temper my expectations for april 14 or whenever it says minister decision coming.. what's it gonna take to reverse some of these big losses and make some money! 

anyways, go SALT go!

[sorrenson]

This is not ramp up to 4 tonne   It is 2.5 tonne production in Q4 2029   They have further delayed the operation from Q3 2028 . BUT it is forward motion  . Anyone dreaming of some production next year etc etc is simply an idiot or duplicitiou . The company has been very clear on timelines even if it makes the cheerleaders sad     

[general360]

thanks, but that only answers part of my questions.  Doesn't indicate when we'll start making money, even if only a bit initially.  I guess I'm half answering my own question, offtakes maybe will tell the story  if what you say is true - production starting at a 2.5mt in q429 then I can't see any offtakes being put in place for over 4yr from now  I don't

[sorrenson]

Here is the capital cost and financial analysis  . The plan is production begining Q3 2029  ( There is a comment say 2028 but all updated reports say q3 2029)  and up to full scale of 2.5 mts by year 4  ( 2033)    The theory is a  4 year roi so paid off in 2033  The issue is the 450 million required to get this built This is preproduction .They have 12

[sorrenson]

Try this again Economic Analysis

[general360]

You aren't entirely wrong.  Yes, that's the costs and the schedule. I believe the company has indicated that they're looking to shave cost AND time from this project.  do you agree on that point at least?  or do you insist that's the end of the discussion? is it realistic to think the costs will be 50% less? i'd say no, but i don't know how conservative the

[sorrenson]

Wow you just saved 150 million,         The 450 million is preproduction , not 300 million unless you can build without engineering etc, EPCM   engineering, procurement, construction management is 70 million and Im thinking management might want paycheques too. You are not producing salt with a john deere and a bucket  You need approvals then road work

[general360]

"You are not producing salt with a john deere and a bucket  You need approvals then road work and crushers etc  ." yep, we'll have all approvals in place by the time the first shovel hits the ground.  and if construction is starting first, then that's before "mining". starts "The PREPRODUCTION  numbers factor 2 % inflation which is low .

[sorrenson]

You need actually read the FS  Here are the links AGAIN   CAPITAL COSTS NOTE THE WORD PRE-PRODUCTION Economic Analysis 22.1.2 Costs Pre-production period: 48 months based on the commencement of some early works engineering, and procurement of long-lead items, with 36 months assumed for construction.  Year 1 is 2029  22.1.1 Revenue Two-year ramp-up to

[general360]

thanks for posting to the FS and supporting materials.  what you say does not take into account the offtakes.  i still maintain that offtakes can't be for so far in the future, 4+ years? no way. I take "Production" to mean once we start selling.  not when they're at 1.6MT initially, with a ramp up to 2.5.  we know they're ramping up to 4, not 2.5, and