Sirona Biochem Corp V.SBM

No Numbers? Let's calculate!

[Turtle4]

Here are the Numbers from Abbvie:
https://investors.abbvie.com/static-files/b37af441-45e9-4e16-b2e9-74a115d615a0 

Ok in Q1 2022 Abbvie made $285 mio revenue with "Other Aesthetics"

Allergan Aesthetics has 13 brands (without botox and Juvederm Collection). One of the Brand is Skinmedica.

So let's say Skinmedica made 30% of the other Aesthetics Revenue: $85.5 mio
Skinmedica has approximately 30 products with one dark spot corrector. So lets assume the revenue of the dark spot corrector (Lytera 2.0) is 1/30 = $2.85 mio

Now Sirona gets 5% royalities = $142,500 in a quarter

That makes $570,000 in a year

My Assumptions:
Worst case: just a replacement of their Dark Spot Corrector like R+F did
Just Royalities, because Ingredient sales will be quite low like in the R+F deal, so it doesn't matter that much.

That would be the starting point. So let's hope that the new product will be so much better and Abbvie will sell much more.

[jimmyhorizon]

yes that makes sense! and they still haven't learned to tell the truth. what are we being fed? "The global skin lightening market is estimated to be around $8B USD, we estimate that AbbVie should easily achieve a 10% market share with TFC-1067. That would amount to $800M USD/year in net sales, once TFC 1067 is fully commercialised. We estimate that the royalty on the net sales will be

[Turtle4]

I think the $8B USD skin lightening market consists mostly of low price skin lightening products. R+F and Abbvie play on the high price premium market. So our possible marketshare will be much much lower. And because the deal is exclusive, we will never see the $$$ from the low price / high volume skin lightening market.

[warch6]

i think your calculation has an error. You did not consider that AbbVie's main market is US and the current gold standard is not allowed in US. Therefore they open a fully new segment for their product lines.

[biorun]

You are way, way off. Abbvie is producing a product line segment using this stuff. Not just a 50 ml tube to dap on the dark dots. They are not R&F, so get that out of your mind, completely, and they moving global. Ask yourself how many countries Abbvie has operations in, and then redo the math. 

[Turtle4]

Abbvie is huge, thats right. But Rodan & Fields is bigger than Allergan Aesthetics (without botox) We are just talking about cosmetics here.

[Turtle4]

Allergan Aesthetics made $38 mio international (without US) revenue in Q1. So thats a big player?

[Turtle4]

(without botox and Juvederm Collection for sure)

[lscfa]

Skinmedica did $100 million in revenues for the YEAR in 2017 so I doubt it is doing $85 mil /qtr now.       https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/816/20816/original.pdf    

[biorun]

I don't have numbers handy right now but the aesthetics line for allergan which includes skinmedica was growing at significant rates (ie doubling etc) keep in mind, and as I understand it, Abbvie chose The Sirona over every other therapy molecule out there. One of the key factors here is the fact that as they have designed it, stands to go head to head with alternative therapies including