A very interesting discussion around the fact that historically speaking this pm 'correction' is quite unusual for being so long in the tooth. They're discussing gold but it applies to silver as well.
Yes, Glen, you rightly abandoned your H&S pattern (a pattern I never agreed would work out despite my overall bullishness) but that was 2 months ago not 6, as you implied when you asked yesterday “is there anyone out there to match my pattern in the last 6 months?”
Re: “From a monthly corrective length of time, gold has not given any investor yet the reason to be scared.”
I wonder if you realize that during the bull market of 2001-2011, only the pullback (crash) of 2008 matched the duration of the current pullback. None of the others came even close and if gold finishes next month lower, it will exceed the duration of the 2008 event. Take a look:
(Monthly gold)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67827982410&a=928817909
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On March 27, 2021 at 8:04 pm,
Excelsior says:
Good comments Matthew. This corrective move down has lasted longer and been more destructive, that almost everyone was expecting since last summer. It’s been a real doozy.
On March 27, 2021 at 8:21 pm,
Excelsior says:
It’s crazy that this correction is getting close to surpassing the duration of the 2008 crash.
Most bull market corrections are not this severe, but then again, Gold did make a new all time high last August, and generalist investors were getting involved with the PMs, so it seems the sentiment needed to get wrung out in a more meaningful way on this move downward, to build the next base to rally from.
On March 27, 2021 at 8:59 pm,
Matthew says:
Gold is also about to secure back-to-back negative quarters. That never happened once during the last bull market.
In addition, aside from 2008, only the correction of 2006 exceeded the depth of the current one but only by about 2% — and it happened within 5 weeks not 31.
The bears are kidding themselves if they doubt the amount of fear and bearishness this correction has caused.
On March 27, 2021 at 7:40 pm,
Matthew says:
The yearly action could hardly be better. Notice that the low this year was a teeny tiny 70 cents below the previous all-time high yearly close of 1674 (2012). That’s the market showing respect for that level, both bulls AND bears. Bulls because price wasn’t allowed to go lower and bears because they insisted on doing what it took to test the level.
(Yearly gold)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=Y&yr=30&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49441766660&a=928826022
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