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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum SQI Diagnostics Inc V.SQD.H

SQI Diagnostics Inc. is a Canada-based company that is focused on lung health. The Company is engaged in the development and manufacturing of respiratory health and precision medicine tests that run on its fully automated systems. Its clinical solutions include Rapid Acute Lung Injury Diagnostic (RALI-Dx), lung transplant diagnostics, COVID-19 testing and surveillance testing solutions. Its... see more

TSXV:SQD.H - Post Discussion

SQI Diagnostics Inc > Page 5 math
View:
Post by mercedesman on Jan 27, 2021 10:43pm

Page 5 math


"I recommend getting to know page 5 of the December Investor Presentation intimately.  Have some fun with numbers.  Just this one page alone will ultimately drive dollars per share"-FF

let me see if I understand it FF...

15,000 lung transplants per year in NA but only 20% happen due to high rejection rate. 


with SQIs Tor-dx and Dr. S. Techniques they could get the success rate up to 85% (quicker assessment, more reliable assessment , better preservation , refurbishing, etc) 

So the no. of Surgeries could go to 12,750 ( 85% of 15,000) 

guessing SQI would be able to charge at least what?, $10,000 per assessment, for their diagnostic tools? Small price to pay to improve the success rate in a $1M operation that brings in major revenues to hospital that need it?

if so, that targets $127,500,000 in annual revenue( 12,750 X $10,000)  Just for the transplant piece ? 

5x revenue would not be an unreasonable valuation for such a business... particularly as it could be used all over the world and the number of lung transplants could rise exponentially as a result of permanent lung scarring caused by Covid ( even for asymptomatic patients) 

but let's JUST  multiply based on the current market estimates in NA ONLY 

revenue $127M 
multiplier 5 ( research biotech multipliers/ valuations with patents and exclusivity) 
est market cap potential $ 635M ( for just the lung diagnostic division) 
per share? Approx $2 

what am I missing FF?

starting to see why you keep mentioning the lung diagnostics and arguably the worlds top lung transplant Doc that helped to develop and refine it, and more importantly - that uses it 

We haven't even talked about kidneys and livers. the potential is enormous... without even considering the Covid home tests and hospital diagnostics!

MM 

Comment by barryt34 on Jan 27, 2021 11:17pm
.   The TORdxTM LUNG Test is a breakthrough diagnostic that is expected to significantly increase the number of lung transplants for patients in the U.S. and Canada. SQI is working with U.S. and Canadian regulatory agencies to obtain regulatory approval, however submission reviews have been suspended as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Comment by FactFinder1994 on Jan 27, 2021 11:17pm
Well done - you either follow closely or catch on quick.   I won't argue with your math, other than to say it may be on the conservative side.   I would also add the Heart and Pancreas to your future list of Organ opportunities too. There are a total of four North American Transplant Centers and in the MD&A (page 5) it indicates that SQI's research partner (UHN), is ...more  
Comment by barryt34 on Jan 27, 2021 11:19pm
The TORdxTM LUNG Test is a breakthrough diagnostic that is expected to significantly increase the number of lung transplants for patients in the U.S. and Canada. SQI is working with U.S. and Canadian regulatory agencies to obtain regulatory approval, however submission reviews have been suspended as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Comment by FactFinder1994 on Jan 27, 2021 11:28pm
Barry - Dr. Shaf Keshavjee has confirmed that the biomarkers they are using in the covid triage tests are the same ones they are using for the TORdx Lung test!  Fortunate for us.     Re-watch some of the videos I have posted and enjoy!   That should make you very happy!!      
Comment by barryt34 on Jan 27, 2021 11:35pm
I have watched all the Sqi videos but the submission for the tordx lung test is on hold for now, I understand that it will do very well in the future but the main focus right now is covid.  You guys need to look at the facts instead of in a rant when the submission is on hold.  I personally feel it will be pushed through as soon as possible but instead of telling people the test is on ...more  
Comment by barryt34 on Jan 27, 2021 11:43pm
Tom the bad cop. Please tell us how you feel?  
Comment by FactFinder1994 on Jan 27, 2021 11:57pm
Barry - I have done my homework and am sharing accordingly. Organ transplants are also in focus right now and we will not let patients die just because the tests are also called Covid triage tests.  BTW they are also called Pneumonia tests too.   Regardless of what you call them, these biomarkers guide therapy and will be used accordingly.       
Comment by barryt34 on Jan 28, 2021 12:15am
So what you are saying is that the tordx doesn't need approval because they are replacing it with a covid triage test?  If that is true then it's all great.  Thank you for clearing that up.  I didn't read it that way.                              The TORdxTM LUNG Test is a breakthrough diagnostic ...more