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The Recession Is A Virtual Certainty And Here Is H

[LeGagneur]

David Rosenberg released an emergency note today, in addition to his traditional morning piece, in which the sole topic is the upcoming recession, which he says is now a "virtual certainty".

He also says what Zero Hedge has been saying for month: that 2011 is an identical replica of 2010, but with the provision of modestly higher inflation, which needs decline before QE3 is launched.

Sure enough, a major market tumble will fix all that in a few days, and ironically we can't help but continue to wonder whether the Fed is not actively doing all in its power to actually crash the market to about 20% lower which will send practically flatten the treasury curve and give Bernanke full reign to do as he sees fit.
However, as long as the BTFD and mean reversion algos kick in every time the market makes a 2% correction, such efforts are doomed, which in turn makes all such dip buying futile. We give the market a few more weeks before it comprehends this. In the meantime, with each passing day in which "nothing happens", the recession within a depression looms closer, and soon it will be inevitable and not all the money printed by Bernanke will do much if anything (except to terminally wound the dollar). In the meantime, for those who wish to prepare for the double dip onset, here is Rosie's checklist of what to do, and what not.


"Commodities in general, energy and raw food in particular, should be a core position, as they are behaving less cyclically and more as a secular growth theme linked to the rapidly rising incomes in the emerging market economies.

The economy and risk assets typically hit a speed bump in a recession. That much is true, but investment ideas and opportunities within the market can still flourish even in a bear phase or a correction — cash should not have to be an option."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/david-rosenberg-recession-virtual-certainty-and-here-how-trade-it

[LoserLoserLoser]

If there will be recession there will be massive deflation despite printing money. So be prepared in this case to the commodity prices like end 2008. I dont like this scenario but it is possibility , but i dont think crash in commodities will happen this year. I think it should happen in 2013

[LeGagneur]

In order to get rid of all of this simply astonishing debt levels in all parts of the financial system regardless of where you look e.g. bank debt, shadow bank debt, private debt, municipal debt, official country debt and off balance sheet country debt there are only two ways either hyper inflate and/or writ the debt off. This as nobody will be able to take on all of this debt there simply arent

[LoserLoserLoser]

Commodity prices and also Zinc prices are depending from demand in China. World is global system and if USA will sink into recession Chinas demand in commodities will decrease. It is very simple. Hence money is flowing out of stockmarket. I agree there is very cheap money around because of low inerest rates in USA. The only hope is that speculative money will support stockmarket but i do not count

[LeGagneur]

China is not dependent on the US. In fact China soon will be the worlds biggest consumtion market as it is already in e.g. regards of cars, oil etc etc. The US is in a recession and has been for yeras. With unofficial unemployment of close 20 % (counting also part time workers that want full time job, people that have been unemployd and have quit lokking for work as they have given up etc etc

[LoserLoserLoser]

Interesting! You believe in decoupling theory and think CHINA is living in vacuum and dont need the biggest worlds economy? You should understand - the world is  global. There is no chanse that if EU or USA is going down China will do fine and commodities will do fine. USA Credit rating cut is a very big deal. After crash when all commodity prices are down it will lead to closing mines like

[LeGagneur]

Not really but yes I do believe the US has be de industrialized and has become a paper shuffling economy. The US$ is soon about to lose its world reserve status as the currency get depreciated to even lower levels. The parallels are striking as to what happened with the British Empire and the Sterling after WW2. Clearly emerging economies use of and need for base metals is quite

[LeGagneur]

Made som changes. Hope you'll like it: The US has been de industrialized and has become a finance paper shuffling economy, as is the case for the UK. The US$ is soon about to lose its world currency reserve status as the currency gets depreciated to even lower levels. The parallels are striking as to what happened with the British Empire and the Sterling after WW2. Clearly emerging