In a previous post(Food for thought), we did talk about what did happen to ImmnunityBio SP after the FDA approval of Anktiva(the SP did climb to US9.00).
Now! Lets go further back in time to see what did happen to ImmunityBio SP after the FDA gave ImmunityBio
BTD approval.
In this link...
ImmunityBio Granted FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for N-803 IL-15 Superagonist in Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer - ImmunityBio ImmunityBio-Anktiva did get the FDA BTD approval in Dec 4,2019
In this link,
Immunitybio Inc (NDAQ:IBRX) Stock Price Today, News, Quote & History | Stockhouse Click on the 5Y chart..
You will notice...
Dec 4,2019,before the FDA BTD approval the SP was at US1.40
Jan 7,2020, 1 month after the FDA BTD approval the SP was US6.00
July 22,2020, 8 months after the FDA BTD approval the SP was US14.00
Feb 22,2021,14 months after the FDA BTD approval the SP was US40.00
ImmunityBio big downward spiral... March 22,2021 the SP is down to US38.00
April 13,2021 the SP is down to US18.00
Oct 12,2023 the SP is down to US1.28
From US40.00 to US1.28 that is a huge drop, to understand the reasons for the big drop to US1.28, we have first to understand the reasons for the big climb to US40.00.
1) Dec 4,2019...FDA BTD approval of ImmunityBio-Anktiva.
2) From Dec 4,2019(BTD approval) to July 21,2020, ImmunityBio did promote its cancer maintenance treatment, and its cancer pipeline and ImmunityBio started to work on vaccines(the SP did climb to US14.00).
3) To get on the Nasdaq, some company in order to simplify the process, and to get on the Nasdaq faster, will choose to merge with a company already on the Nasdaq.
That is exactly what ImmunityBio did by merging with Nantkwest a Nasdaq company.
2020-12-21 | ImmunityBio and NantKwest to Merge, Creating a Leading Immunotherapy and Cell Therapy Company | NDAQ:IBRX | Press Release Note: When you merge with a Nasdaq company you do get its Nasdaq status, but you also get its shares out count, that could explain ImmunityBio huge 700 million shares out.(TLT has only 235-335 million shares out).
4) 2 months after ImmunityBio announcing it will merge with Nantkwest the SP did climb to US40.00.
Note: At US40.00 there was no revenue, investors were only speculating on future potential revenues.
The big question is why the big drop to US1.28...
When a company gets onto Nasdaq, investors to stay invested need to believe big revenues are coming, short-term and long-term.
Unfortunately, when the year end financial came out in March 2021(just before the big downward spiral), investors saw no revenues on the horizon for ImmunityBio...
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ImmunityBio Revenue 2014-2024 | IBRX | MacroTrends 2019= 2 million revenues (BTD approval).
2020= 1 million revenues(Nasdaq).
2021= 1 million revenues(drop in SP March 2021).
2022= 0 million revenues.
2023= 1 million revenues.
In short,,,
The big SP drop is because to stay invested, investors need to believe in future revenues, and there was no revenues, short-term or long-term on the horizon for ImmunityBio. Why no revenues for ImmunityBio-Anktiva.
-Anktiva is a maintenance therapy that doesn't even cure the cancer.
- After a BCG resistant patient has been treated and cured of its cancer, if the same patient ask its insurance program, to pay for an extra 37 months long maintenance therapy that doesn't even cure the cancer, there is a big chance that the insurance program
answer will be a big NO. On the opposite side TLT-Ruvidar.
If a new BCG resistant patient ask its insurance program, to pay for a real cancer treatment, that can cure the cancer, and is 100% safe, and has the best CR% in the business, the
answer will possibly be a big yes. And the above is even more plausible, when we know that the best FDA approved treatment for BCG resistant patients is Adstiladrin, and Adstiladrin has huge restrictions, and a very low long-term CR%.
-With only one FDA approved
maintenance therapy (Anktiva), and an average pipeline,after the FDA BTD approval, ImmunityBio SP did reach US40.00.
-With a
real cancer treatment and the best CR% in the business(+ a huge pipeline, investors will certainly believe in future revenues for TLT), it will be interesting to see what will happen to TLT SP after the
FDA BTD approval. To find out, you need to stay invested in TLT.
.