TORO OIL AND GAS LTD V.TOO

hmmm

[stoneycurtis]

OK. So I am kind of tempted to but some of this stock but I looked at the numbers closer:

They say their current production is 660 boepd = assume 60,720 boe for Q3.
They say current split is 60% liquids 40% gas.
So using the production split at $50/bbl for oil and $3.00/mcf for gas = $37.20/boe
With an average royalty rate (off their Q1 and Q2 MD&A of about 16.5% = $6.14/boe
Let's say they are steady at $20.00 per boe for opcosts, including transportation.
Let's say that G&A is now $600K/quarter = $9.88/boe.

The math on the above = $1.18/boe to the good. 

A few things to consider: is gas going to actually be that high? Probably not.
Will royalties stay at that level? No. I believe they go higher with the PVR. 
Are there some other costs that have not been factored into this? Probably.

In other words, I highly doubt that this company is viable....And even if the positive cash flow holds true, is it enough to drill additional wells? No. Buyers remorse forthcoming....

[rockoil29]

If your going to buy based on current Production ....don't . This is a speculative Junior Oil , in a bad market! The value in this is their low O/S share numbers ,and their large Viking land holdings. Do they have the funds to exploit it ? No . Will they ? This depends on the expertise of their management team and their ability to raise funds, which will dilute existing shareholders but

[stoneycurtis]

Low o/s share number??? 113 million shares is not low....if anything you are strengthening my argument to stay away from this....I mean at $0.23/share if they want, say $15 million, you end up issuing an additional 50% of your existing shares....ouch...

[robert41]

Why would you waste your time posting about a company you aren't interested in? You join stockhouse and your first posts are all negative on one company seems like you are upset you missed out on the run it had and would like some cheap shares. 

[stoneycurtis]

If you'd take the time to read my comment, Bob, I am interested. However, I am having trouble making the numbers work for me and trying to avoid making foolish mistakes like buying their shares because of a BNN appearance like many others have.....I am just looking for people to help make sense of numbers that to me, don't look that great. What do you think of their results lately? To me

[Summon3r]

have to agree with you stoney, i held shares here for a long time and took a good haircut at .21 a couple months back. i couldnt sit around and hold with no guidance coming from management on growing the future production in any way shape or form. only way i come back here is if oil goes towards $60. to me this is nothing more then a prayer for a buyout at the moment seeing as their land is very

[robert41]

Sorry misinterpreted your post. When I last talked to management in the spring they were hunkering down for better times they wanted to be a survivor because of their assets. From what I have heard about management is they are conservative and honest. It's a risk but having a small position in a few of these company's could change your life in the next year or two its all about survival