Tudor Gold Corp V.TUD

Fair value for TUD, TUO, and AMK based on AUeq in the ground

[GoldInsect777]

I was curious about what a conservative assignment of value to the most recent resource update from TUD would be, and I found the below article to be quite insightful. 

It would seem from the analysis done in this article that the current price of gold has litte if any effect on what the buyout price of a deposit it, and that 56% of takeovers take place at a price of less than $45/oz per their global resource estimate. About 30% of takeovers occur at less than $22.50/oz and 26% between $22.50 and $45.00. 

The Real Value of Gold in the Ground | Kitco News

Based on that, I have taken the liberty of using a conservative assignment of $25/oz for the indicated and inferred resources of 30.72 Moz and broke the factor down into one 60% and two 20% totals to account for TUDs, TUOs, and AMKs stakes respectively. From a total number of $768M, 60% = $460.8M and 20% = $153.6M (USD)

Assuming current share prices of TUD, TUO, and AMK of $0.87, $0.97, and $0.12 respectively (USD again to make it more straighforward with gold pricing), and accounting for the maximum dilution that TUD will get from the PP, I estimate market caps of $220M for TUD, $57.6M for TUO, and $58M for AMK. 

For their current market caps to reach their staked percentage of the theoretical $768,000,000 calculation, their share price appreciations would have to increase by a factor of 2.1 for TUD, 2.67 for TUO, and 2.65 for AMK. 

DYDD....

[Leiefegrande]

TUD is trading at $9/oz. Sector average for gold juniors with an enterprise value between $100M and $1,000M = $60/oz. Fair value per share for TUD = CAD$ 7 Even if it´s only half that number, it´s still significantly undervalued at current levels. 

[Countrygent]

That's a reasonable back of the envelope confirmation there is likely lots of value at TC.   As for using averages, I heard a pretty good example the other day as a warning to be careful ... nine welfare bums are drinking beer in a dive bar, hardly a nickle more than the price of their next round among all of them.  Bill Gates walks in and orders a Diet Coke. It's probably a

[MaterialsMan]

CG, That is one heck of an observation and a good analogy. I personally own stock in a junior that has twenty million proven oz's of AU, plus 500 oz's of proven AG in situ. MV is stuck at less than 200MM. The big guys don't seem to want to touch it because of the cost to develop the property. The company has spent a small fortune on PEA's and infrastucture. No one is going to lend

[TeckPro]

Has ES continues to invest tens of millions into TUD. Has ES been investing the company in which you are an investor? TUD is 5rh in ES holdings with 38,567,819 shares according to Marketscreener.com. He is also partaking in the recent PP of 16 Million. Out of the 3 Amigos TUD is his his TOP investment by far, 3x that of TUO and over 4x AMK.  There must be a reason no? DYODD

[MaterialsMan]

TP, Not quite sure who ES is, but ES may not even know of the junior I mentioned. The only point being made is that having a lot of resource in situ does not necessarily mean success. I hope Tudor turns into a 10 bagger and gets taken out. But, that is what I and a lot of people I know thought would happen to the junior I mentioned. I just realized you are referring to Eric Sprott. Who by the way,

[GoldInsect777]

One thing of interest to me is the fact that Tudor had off-loaded their optioned Crown properties owned by Teuton via the Goldstorm Metals spinout and also their Eskay North property sold to Skeena. That makes me believe that Sprott's recent partaking in this TUD PP is based almost purely on the prospects for TC. It seems that Tudor is placing the overwhelming majority of their chips on TC at

[Countrygent]

The spin-out is more likely just because the TC property now has a completely different risk-reward and cash burn profile from the prospects placed in Goldstorm, plus TC is clean for any takeout bid or major partner buy-in if and when management think the timing is ripe. Goldstorm holds some very interesting prospects, well worth watching and perhaps accumulating depending on your personal risk