Tudor Gold Corp V.TUD

how might the Tunnel dispute affect TUD pricing long term?

[geolteacher]

The BC Ministry of Energy, Mines, and Low Carbon Innovation has said it prefers SEA and TUD work out the matter themselves. That seems unlikely to happen because there's not enough pressure on the two parties.

The ministry must consider TUD's interests in evaluating an application by SEA for a tunnel, even if TUD stops exploration expenditures and doesn't apply for a mining license, if SEA comes back with another application for a tunnel.

Who can outlast who? SEA, or TUD? Both currently have access to enough capital for this deadlock to endure a while.

SEA has a market cap ~ 6x that of TUD and could in theory effect a merger of all parties, but: 

• Would TUD and the other two companies all sell to SEA?
• I doubt SEA would offer enough money.

The Treaty Creek and KSM projects probably have similar total AuEQ. KSM has about 1/2 the grade of Treaty Creek, and hence will have inferior economics (IRR, return on capital, etc.) 

A third party (like Newmont, if looking to invest...) might prefer Treaty Creek (rather than KSM) because of its better grade.

I doubt Newmont (or another other biggie) would want to buy all the parties before there is a PEA or an FS for Treaty Creek.

It's been speculated that SEA is posturing and maybe neglecting legal reality in its news releases.

• Is this to delude naive retail market participants so they won't sell off shares?
• If it's the CEO's hubris, how many years until he's gone?

SEA could spin off KSM, retain some ownership, and let the SpinCo pursue a merger or deal with TUD. But if the CEO's got hubris he may not be open to it.

TUD has no other projects, and access to funding, so it is in no hurry to sell or merge or complete a MRE or apply for a mining license.

Summation:
I don't see the market giving TUD or Treaty Creek its full value until the tunnel dispute is resolved, or until TUD completes at least a PEA. (Anybody know when TUD is likely to complete a PEA?)

For me:
I'm thinking its time to sell TUD and buy something with a better-constrained timeframe for known catalysts to push prices upward (like more Artemis or I-80 Gold).

Thoughts?

[fordster]

Great post Geo...the majority of us here are all long term and we're hear until we're recognized or sold to a major. Personally we've all endured bashing/short attacks and I suspect we will continue to stick it out. For me, it's important to be a part of history and to be rewarded for that dedication. You seem fairly new, and you've figured out this will take time. Perhaps

[geolteacher]

I've been in and out of Tudor before. I'm embarrassed to say I didn't know about the tunnel dispute until a few months ago. I'm in my 60s and feel compelled to start thinking about getting returns within a few years. For anyone willing to wait the years TUD is probably a worthwhile investment. GLTA!

[Jetstream1281]

If you aren't a day trader or a long this play is likely not for you....significant short term returns are not that likely IMO...the way things are shaking out we may not see a significant jump for at least a year from now or more...

[geolteacher]

Jetstream, I agree with you on everything. What do you think will cause the next significant jump(s) in TUD's share price or market cap (other than a 'floats all boats' rise of gold against the USD)?

[Jetstream1281]

- The obvious one is a PEA...but Ken has stated that he needs to define Goldstorm before it can be done properly....it's going to take at least next drilling season if not more to accomplish that so the earliest I would possibly expect one would be end of next year. - A major high grade gold hit.....im talking hundreds of meters with an average of around 10g/t  - A partnership or buyout

[Jetstream1281]

My personal belief is that the two most likely options are the PEA or a crazy 2020-like run. Unless SEA pushes for something to happen....then all bets are off....