Teuton Resources Corp V.TUO

Things are heating up...

[Fabe]

More M&A

Alamos Gold Announces Friendly Acquisition of Argonaut Gold

[stockzorg]

This acquisition of Argonaut is for Magino.  $325 million for 5.38 million oz Au or $60/oz.  M&I grade is 1.16g/t and Inferred grade is less than 1g/t

[Larry60]

STOCkzor, really????  You gloss over 2 key things: 1)  AR has spent hundreds and hundreds of millions building Magino out and its in production!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Takes down effective price per oz to around $20!!!!!!   TUD probably still has to spend another $100 million before they could even consider moving into construction for a multi billion dollar project!!!! 2) 

[highper]

if you are going to play that game larry you should have to calculate in the debt alamos took on as a result of the transaction... $188 million plus $10 million outstanding in revolving credit as per the last argonaut presentation https://www.argonautgold.com/English/investors/overview/default.aspx

[Larry60]

highper, I fully agree the debt being assumed must be included in the valuation.  To ignore it would be obscene. but youy still have to look at what it cost to build Magninio.  KNOWN costs ran up to $1 Billion.  If they rebuilt it today, probably $1.5 billion or more !!!!  That is what sunk AR................the cost overuns that led them to go back to market time and again to

[highper]

Point taken larry. All i can say is I superficially scanned the argonaut presentation and saw the debt numbers. I also noticed that argonaut appears to have had production issues at magino and that it has other projects which on superficial observation look to be mostly serious liabilities.... But in essence you were correct to point out that evaluating an in situ deposit and a deposit that is

[Larry60]

Correct Highper.  We'll have to agree to agree! AR holds some real dog assets.  I believe most of those are going into Spinco as ALamos doesnt want the trouble! Magnino has had lots of issues - mostly on the build out.  Production wise seem to be behind the curve.  Unfortunately, this is the norm for new mines!!!!  Look at Iamgolds Cote project!!!!  Its a

[highper]

well we don't agree on everything larry. I'm sticking to my valuation of $30 US per in situ oz until tudor presents its scoping/prefeasibility studies... 

[stockzorg]

Discount at 10% per year?  Are you stuck in the 1980's?  Maybe that's why SA's market cap is about $7 per oz. Au Eq - discounting over 35+ year mine life?

[Larry60]

Zorg, would you put your hard earned money into junior resource stocks for less than a potential  10% rate of return?   risk free rates in the 3% to 5% range which leaves you close to 0 in risk free real returnes. THe point, however, is that you can NOT compare something in production to something that is 10 years away from production.  Dont be disingenous......... Even

[stockzorg]

Two different calculations sir.  When you discount returns on mine development at 10% half of the reserves become worthless after 7.2 years of mine life (rule of 72).  No one would ever buy any mine using 10%. When I buy junior mining stocks pre-production I'm looking for 10X returns.  Two good prospects for me this year so far are AMQFF which I bought at $.04 now at $.40 and

[Larry60]

Yes, the higher the discount rate the lower the duration of the cash flows and the higer the % of "NPV"  attributed to the years not so far out. But that is besides the point.  The point is that you cant compare the valuation of Gold RESERVES of a permitted and producing mine to the RESOURCE of TUD that is a few years away from a production decision and years away from