Wow closed down at c$.245 after announcing closing of bought deal raising C$18M to ensure finish of construction of a mine that's to start producing in 2 months over 100 Million pounds of copper at a grade of 1.51%.
I know the dilution was massive, but who are the crazy investors selling? Capitulation at its best, time to sell was long ago if you wanted. Now with 111,000,000 outstanding shares, your talking a market cap of C$27M for something that:
1. The creditors have agreed to debt Forebearance till October 1, 2022. So that derisked.
2. In today's dollars over US300 Million has been spent developing what is a producing mine making copper cathodes. Vale certainly saw something to spend that money over 10 years ago.
3. C$18M was just raised to finish construction to best case scenario and more than they needed.
4. The minority shareholder and the party who filed a suit has likely been diluted to zero. The minority shareholder is not trying to kill this as they are a creditor and the General Contractor on the Don Gabriel project. That is derisked.
5. They are projecting 17.6 to 22 Million pounds in 2022, my guess this will be at a profit of $1.50-$2/lb, more than enough to put a dent in their roughly $70M in debt, leaving 2023 to be a record year. Company probably debt free end of 2023.
6. Reserves set to increase by more than 100% as they already identified a large prophery between their two mines, that looks like it's connected. Over 95% of their 45,000 hectares unexplored.
7. No mention of other ores, as Gold, Silver, Molybdenum are probably present. Los Palambres which is 50km away and one of the worlds largest deposits has these as a byproduct.
8. No way this is overscribed to be trading down 25% from the .32 capital raise, something fishy. We'll see who the new owners are shortly.
9. Chile royalty tax not really and issue as this mine to small. Profits willl be untaxed as they have over US$250 Millin in tax losses being carried which make it even more attractive in a buyout.
To those selling, why sell now? Sure your/we were diluted but finally this mine is to start producing real copper cathodes at full capacity, and high grade stuff of 1.51%, the most desirable product, copper cathodes ready for export, not concentrate.
This mine my guess will be sold once production is ramped up and reserves increased. Only a guess what the sale price is, but should be minimum of C1.50-C$2, giving it a market cap near C$200 Million on today's share count, almost a 900% increase from here. Even if the warrants excercised, still a huge upside. Why sell?
end.