Vital Energy Inc (Canada) V.VUX

This is a go-private play with nothing but upside

[YoungInvestor89]

Management owns 2/3 of the float and their last financials would allow them to go private in 9 months if they bought back the other 1/3 at current SP.

Should be a good premium to hold this. The longer it ticks up the sooner management has to act.

[mjh9413]

But have you reviewed the Reserve Report filed with their year enr financials? Thoughts? eom

[mjh9413]

And I believe it is just Mr. Zhou who holds that interest...eom

[freedom-1970]

I would expect several wells on the agenda for 2022 , as this woudld easily cover any declines. I am hoping they can add 20% production increases over a 6 month timeframe. This would give them growth thru cash flow . Couple in hedges at 3 month intervals would maximize profit's.   2000 boed and we can have some interest from the big boys...

[mjh9413]

BUT (and maybe you will check this out) IMHO, while there has been a minor increase in natgas reserves yoy, they reduced L&MO by 100,000 bbls (about 240bopd) yoy and have just over 1 year's worth of LM&O as P1 at Dec 31 2021(based 0n 850bopd in 2022) plus some heavy oil, natgas and liquids. They do have approx 500boepd in Probable at Dec 2021, the same as last year. All the above are

[Roddiggiti]

We already know Gull Lake has 3 wells to drill, thanks to CBV's MD&A, which is always released sooner than VUX. Then Sullivan Lake has the ability to go from 100boed to 300boed. MD&A says 4-6 wells to be drilled and we don't know which leases just yet. The 5 Baxter wells are being re-activated also, not sure what those will produce. Could they do a JV on a Montney well? Those are

[mjh9413]

I see a number of irreconcilable numbers in the Reserves report from Trimble and Mgmt (such as what they prdict as 2022 prodn numbers...P16, I think...which are way below Q4's but, if the Proven Reserves are to be believed (do they include a number for Estavan/Lampman?), then they have produced about 1/3rd of those reserves since December end. GL