Very Good Food Company Inc VGFCQ

Revenue projection deep(ish) dive

[EdgeInvestments]

VERY reported approx. gross production for 2019 along with revenue, so if you reverse engineer the math you get an estimated sales price of ~$16/lb. 

Let's be super conservative and ONLY look at Victoria. Management provided guidance of 19,000 lbs/wk out of that facility in the near term, so using the same $16/lb that's $1.2m a month or $15.8m annually. 

BYND currently trades at ~18x revenues, so using that same multiple would give VERY an implied market cap of $284m (>$3 share). 

However, we shouldn't exactly ignore the newly announced Vancouver/California facilities:

California capacity: 550k lbs/wk
Vancouver capacity: 100k lbs/wk
Victoria capacity: 25k lbs/wk

Total: 675k lbs/wk

This is very loose math, but using the figures above then you can get a rough revenue projection (at full capacity) of $10.8m... a week! Multiplied by 52 and that's over $500m a year top line.

Of course production capacity doesn't necesserily mean they can sell that much, so that remains to be seen. 

But with a current market cap of ~$120-$130m...

Am I missing something?

[doggy123]

Thanks for your math...even better then mine.Monster one....$$$$$

[veganplanet]

This sounds like the math I use to see for cannabis companies on reddit and we all know how that turned out. I believe in VERY but these numbers are FAKE same way I use to believe in the cannabis stocks they're inflated a lot. I can see the company going up, but this is how people lose money

[freeradical1]

I am sure that the revenue numbers are legit but read the reports and NRs to understand why sales went up. They undertook a marketing campaign to drive sales and spent a whack on ad spending and product placement. It is not hard to drive the top line if you are willing to sell product at a loss. You can argue that costs will go down as they scale up manufacturing but then prices are going to go

[Casey1989]

I actually agree with you. Let the company prove itself in due time. We won't know too much of where VERY truly fits in for at least 3 months. Let the market digest the process and if you truly believe in this company keep a dip buy on.... I think we need to see a strong board member acquisition.. Someone with experience in high output and high sales in the foods sector. I'm sure there is

[veganvic]

Couple of updates to tour  dive, from the news release this week. 1- the new "Rupert" facility in Vancouver has a capacity on its own of 37500000 lbs/ year - which is about 721K per week- so,- on its own more than you/ we could calculate back in September .  The company must have a very secure sense of demand for their product to take on these production facilities , (or