Victoria Gold Corp VITFF

Is Management Blowing Our Chances?

[StuntCoq]

Today one of my biggest positions also released their Quaterlies. Silvercrest Metals. They have unreal grades, but the management of that company are Pros (they are a spin off from a previously successful sale) and it shows. There is a lot of contrast in the way the mines are managed between SIL and VCGX, and it is showing today.

But what are your thoughts? 

I'm thinking these first couple years are vital to prove yourself, especially since we are low grade. In hindsight I'm thinking making moves to block Coeur was a mistake, but hey I was seeing those dollar signs at the time too. Coeur would have paid a premium at the time and the share price was much higher. John could have transitioned to Bayan and started to build that up for a sale. Other questions I have (and maybe people know on this board) were around the belt failure: What kinda of inspection and maintenance is done on the system? Are we waiting for failures or being proactive? Have we thought about risk mitigations for critical path items? Are they in place?

I'm thinking there are a couple positive outcomes here which is why I am currently holding: 

1. VGCX gets their act together, we take a nice buyout from a midcap, ideally BYN shares are spun out or BYN is also bought.
2. VGCX tries to become a multi mine company, by buying and developping BYN (and it better be with free cash flow and as little debt as possible) and proving out LG's claims. Although this would be a cool story to be apart of, this is going to take time and very smart descision making. So the less likely option.

[kegman]

Do you trust this management team to manage a multi faceted operation?  The stuff in the ground is there.  If they cannot manage a profitable way of maximizing the profit we need someone who is.  HB'er....if you are correct and he would not talk to you anymore that just proves my point.  Some people are good at start ups.  Then they move on to allow pros manage the

[HoneyBadger77]

Well Kegman, VGCX management seemed to be getting things right in 2020 and 2021 by the look of the Annual EPS of $1.30 and $1.96 per share.  From what I can tell, the ROM Ore dumping is what threw things off the rails and if you read the Research Report, getting things right are not an exact science with numerous factors that can vary from mine to mine. I think management's decision to

[MVargas]

Annual EPS in 2020 and 2021 was $0.25 and $1.77. 2021 EPS was somewhat distorted by a mark-to-market gain of $12 million in derivatives while the actual cash loss in 2022 was in the 10's of millions of dollars. With all due respect, imo ROM ore dumping was a non-factor.   According to data supplied by the company, Victoria produced more gold ounces in 2022 than the recoverable

[MVargas]

Correction to previous post re derivatives.  The derivatives cash loss was not in 2022, but in 2021 which had a big impact on 2021 EPS.

[barringtondolby]

Am I reading this right?  despite a heavy cash loss due to derivatives, in 2021, VGCX had an EPS,of 1.77.

[HoneyBadger77]

Well MVargus, just so you know I didn't pull the VGCX 2021 and 2022 annual EPS numbers out of my hat, here's a screen shot of what RBC Action Direct is showing.  I thought maybe I misread the 2020 number and maybe it was actually only .30 cents but nope, there's actually a 1 infront so it reads $1.30 EPS in 2020 and $1.96 in 2021.  It also reads .54 cents in 2022 (which looks

[HoneyBadger77]

So it looks like Stockhouse won't let me post the RBC chart (in table format) I mentioned.  I'll try once more and if it doesn't work, those of you with RBC Action Direct can access it there if they wish.  Here goes.... Earnings & Estimate Ranges Quarterly Data Annual Data  VGCX Price Scale Reported Earnings Estimates Positive Surprise Negative

[MVargas]

Who cares about the RBC charts?  The true numbers are as reported in VGCX's annual audited financial statements, available on Sedar and the VGCX website. Sure 2022 benefitted from residual leached ounces from 2021 that's why produced ounces were greater than stacked ounces.  Per JM, there is 75% recovery after 45 days. I am not going to waste any more time trying to convince

[HoneyBadger77]

Well actually MVARGAS I care about the RBC charts/EPS data because if they're not accurate and out by that much in 2020, someone there needs to explain why and I fully intend to follow up with them on this issue. When I asked where you got your numbers from, I wasn't trying to offend you (although I can see now how it might have come across that way).   I was just looking to

[MVargas]

HoneyBadger, no offense taken and none given. I so long for someone to buy us out as I am so tired of the broken promises, underperformance and incompetence from those who continue to pay themselves ever increasing huge salaries and bonuses. Will this year be any different?  We'll see, but no Raven results yet is not a good sign.