Post by
stayhumble1 on Jun 13, 2010 10:02pm
2 Steps Forward, 1 Step Back
In the course of doing some weekend analysis of current sp movement by reviewing fundamentals, technicals, thoughts from those kindly sharing here, market trends, etc. I thought I would also look at the retracements during each 'stair step' move we have had since Sept. 09 and see if the retracements percentages were similar to the current one. (My attempt to examine this pullback and convince myself that indeed, all is well and to remain patient.)
On the 1 yr. daily chart, the 'step' from late Sept to mid-Dec '09 involved an approx. 35% drop from the top to the low, the 'step' from mid-Dec to beginning of Mar '10 involved an approx 30% drop. These drops then, were similar to the current one in terms of range and in that the down days were on low volume.
Our current drop from the high of $1.79 to our current $1.11 is almost exactly 38.2% .... a perfect Fibonacci retracement level. I don't often monitor the Fibonacci but it is one more piece of information to add to the pot and it coincides with an oversold reading on RSI, Williams and stochastics, which I do monitor. We need a reversal candle to form hereabouts....