Verde Agritech Ltd VNPKF

Fertilizer Price Outlook

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Crop Nutrient Markets

 

• Global potash prices weakened through the second quarter of 2023, driven by continued destocking in offshore markets and the uncertainty created by the delay in the Chinese potash contract.
• We have seen stronger engagement in offshore spot markets, led by Brazil, following the settlement of the Chinese potash contract in June 2023.
• We believe channel inventories in North America ended the first half at multi-year lows and are seeing strong demand in the third quarter.
• We project potash exports from Russia to be down 3.0 to 4.0-million tonnes and from Belarus down 4.0 to 5.0-million tonnes compared with 2021 levels.
• We expect Canadian potash exports will be constrained by logistical challenges primarily due to the strike at the Port of Vancouver and as a result, we have lowered our projected global shipment range for 2023 to between 63 and 65-million tonnes.
• Global urea and nitrate prices have strengthened in the third quarter of 2023 driven by increased demand and supply constraints, including plant turnarounds and reduced Egyptian gas supplies.
• Ammonia prices have been impacted by lower-than-expected European natural gas prices, weak downstream industrial demand, and reduced imports by phosphate producers.
• However, we expect ammonia markets to strengthen during the balance of the year due to low global inventories, continued supply constraints, and higher values for other nitrogen products.
• Dry phosphate prices declined throughout the second quarter of 2023, but channel inventories were low to end the North American spring season and demand has strengthened in the second half.
• prices remain historically low compared with finished phosphate prices, which in combination with lower ammonia prices has offset a portion of the price declines.