Post by
74volfram on Feb 27, 2015 10:07am
present day worth of the mine
This "buyout offer" is maybe a crock / maybe not. I have looked at yyzflex posts here and he has never been the hype-ster. quite the opposite. If yyzflex intended it as a joke on somebody here making fun of his English, he can come out now and we'll all laugh with him. But I am willing to suspend disbelief and say maybe there is something to the "phantom 35c offer", if only because I think it is the present-day discounted worth of the mine and that should be the basis of all financial discussions after final feasibility.
- Many here hated the 8c Almonty merger offer (really the offer was 40+% of Almonty and Woulfe combined). The question to ask should have been (and still is): what is Woulfe actually worth at this point? and even more important: is it reasonable to expect that somebody step up and offer that right now in cash? I thought the Almonty's merger offer (in terms of share % of the combined company) was not far from present day worth of the mine and had the added value of moving the company away from financial management into technical management for long-term appreciation. Woulfe management ducking out of the merger they initially supported likely means Korean stakeholders did not want the deal. In that case did they come up with a different / better option?
- Sangdong NPV is 160M including CAPEX of 75M and discounted at 5%. It should be possible, particularly to the "next door" Korean off-taker (who was also the previous owner of the mine), to obtain a commercial loan at 5% (according to the feasibility study). Korean Shinhan bank was willing to provide 100% financing to Wesson up to 200M (according to a previous MOU). I imagine they will have no trouble loaning 75M to TaeguTec to develop the mine.
- The fully diluted value of the mine (on 450M shares) comes out at 35c /share. A 100% off-taker could easily justify the full takeover of the newly de-risked mine at 35c. TaeguTec (IMC) will have the full mine output without markup and will realize at least 16% IRR, at current APT prices without counting all of Sangdong resources not yet booked in the mining plan (15+ deeper levels). Not bad at all for a metalworks company.
- The new Woulfe board does not look to me like a long-term move to manage a Korean mine into production. All financial, all Canadian and all Dundee. This is likely a Dundee effort to stay in control long enough to plan a gainful exit. Dundee preferred option was to exit into Almonty and was told to back off. Now they will try (predictably) to engineer their own financing of the CAPEX. Having given up technical long-term management of the mine a while back already, that's how they can make money here.
- The Dundee board will quickly come up with in-house financing through convertible debentures and the usual tools of the trade. It will not be outrageous like some here fear and will have the 8c floor of the Almonty deal. But if yyzflex is to be believed (and in the end I cannot find a real reason to outright dismiss him), an inside bid will come maybe even sooner. A legitimate Korean bid based on the Canadian mine plan will not be easy to set aside. In my opinion they will eventually find a solution in time to cash in the 30c warrants.
To Mr. Kilgor: 1) the report of Woulfe that you mention was from Christopher Ecclestone, a close friend of the Wessons. He is technically credible, but he could not possibly have said anything much critical about the previous management of Woulfe. Wessons probably did as much as they could with the mine, but hyped it too much, over-promised, took questionable shortcuts, and in the end failed to deliver at a critical point and were out. 2) Full board control by Dundee will not stand: they do not have enough shares and have not put enough skin in the game.
To Mr. Aurelius: 1) the 4-month lockup period is long over for the Woulfe creditors, except Dundee and insiders. 2) With final feasibility done, the issue now is financing. not bankruptcy or cash at hand, or confiscation /nationalization (close, but this is not North Korea).
Comment by
GastownGuy on Feb 27, 2015 11:36am
His motivation and bias in his posts seem suspicious
Comment by
chrisp6712 on Feb 27, 2015 12:24pm
You think an Air Canada employee from Toronto somehow has access to information pertaining to this phantom offer and no one else does? If he knows about a bonafied offer then hundreds of other people would know and you would see a few million shares up to .25c trading hands each day.