Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

Bargain Hunting

[retiredcf]

I was fortunate enough to free up some cash heading into the silly season (Sep/Oct) but have been taken aback by just how many retail investors are jumping off the cliff and giving away their high quality junior/intermediate energy shares at bargain basement prices. So I have been adding to the likes of Whitecap Resources, TORC Oil and Gas, RMP Energy and DeeThree. Yesterday, I added Long Run to the list.

I previously held LRE but sold it in the mid $5's a few months ago as I thought it was looking a bit weak. I expected the SP to drift back down to $5 or perhaps the high $4's. But $4.00!!!

I like the logic outlined in the 10 Sep Seekingalpha article by Thomas Lott. Assuming considerable selling from both Sprott and ex Crocotta Energy shareholders, his worst case scenario was $4.50. As can be seen, analyst comments have been generally favourable (aside from Eric Nuttall who many people don't like because he often changes his mind every other month). And an analyst that I have had a lot of time for, Joanne Hruska, made LRE a top pick the last time she appeared. We also have two recent inside buys at almost $5.00.

As for the dividend, although many analysts think that it's safe, it wouldn't bother me if they cut it in half. As has happened to other companies, this could actually cause the SP to rise. Why? Because it would further reduce the POR and show that management are keeping their eye on the ball. And a dividend over 5% is still very respectable.

Bottom line, LRE looks like a serious bargain at this level so I jumped back in yesterday at $4.03. GLTA

Sep 11/14	Sep 10/14	Orton, Dale John	Indirect Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Acquisition in the public market	8,000	$4.96
Sep 10/14	Sep 10/14	King, Jana	Direct Ownership	Common Shares	10 - Acquisition in the public market	5,000	$4.97

LRE-T		2014-09-26	WEAK BUY	Bill Carrigan	He used to be bullish on Nat Gas, but not crude. He now thinks Nat Gas has run its course. It has gone nowhere since 2010. It is a trader. You accumulate at support and sell at the top of the range. It is not a long term investment. You might accumulate it here. / Be the first to comment	Price: $4.520 Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bias: SELECTIVE Owned: Unknown
	LRE-T		2014-09-19	COMMENT	Greg Newman	Thinks the dividend is safe. Total payout ratio that comes in for 2014 is under 100%. Sees them growing their cash flow at about 15% in the next couple of years. Debt to cash flow isn’t bad for a small company. This is levered to falling oil prices, but it is pretty liquid. Would Buy if you are a risk tolerant investor. / Be the first to comment	Price: $4.600 Subject: CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES Bias: UNKNOWN Owned: Unknown
	LRE-T		2014-08-29	COMMENT	Robert McWhirter	Doesn’t follow this one intimately, but it ranks 199, top one third of his database. Recent earnings were down 70% year-over-year. The coming quarter is supposed to snap back 36%. Looks like a reasonable opportunity with a two-year timeframe. / Be the first to comment	Price: $5.270 Subject: CANADIAN & TECHNOLOGY Bias: BULLISH Owned: Unknown
	LRE-T		2014-08-25	DON'T BUY	Eric Nuttall	Safe if you are a dividend investor. The perception is that their plays are not ‘A’ quality. A recent acquisition put LRE-T shares in the hands of investors who may not want to keep them. Wait 3 months for them to finish selling. Prefers others. / Be the first to comment	Price: $5.330 Subject: OIL & GAS Bias: SELECTIVE Owned: No
	LRE-T		2014-08-11	COMMENT	John O'Connell, CFA	Doesn’t think the dividend is safe. A lot of these companies should not be paying dividends, or certainly not as large as they are. This company has made some acquisitions and they are trying to reposition their portfolio. Still have a lot of debt. Thinks they may sell some things sooner rather than later. The dividend is really handcuffing them from their ability to go out and make strategic longer-term decisions. / Be the first to comment	Price: $5.470 Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE Bias: CAUTIOUS Owned: Unknown
	LRE-T		2014-07-31	SPECULATIVE BUY	Greg Newman	Thinks this is a real good one. Has a payout ratio of under 100%, a dividend of around 7.5%, and is trading at about 3.7X EV discounted to its cash flow, versus its peers of almost double that. Just bought some new properties that fit in well, which should help in terms of execution. A high-risk name, but a very good one to own. / Be the first to comment	Price: $5.500 Subject: CANADIAN DIVIDEND & DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: Unknown
	LRE-T		2014-07-25	COMMENT	Eric Nuttall	(Market Call Minute.) Not a name he would have in his top 10. There are more exciting names, but in terms of a dividend payer it is fine. / Be the first to comment	Price: $5.780 Subject: OIL & GAS Bias: BULLISH on OIL Owned: No
	LRE-T		2014-07-17	BUY	Robert Lauzon	After their acquisition some of the shareholders may sell out so it may stall for a short while. Likes other income names better, but he owns this one. $5.60 ceiling. / Be the first to comment	Price: $5.640 Subject: ENERGY Bias: OPTIMISTIC Owned: Yes
	LRE-T		2014-07-16	COMMENT	Bill Bonner	Looking to acquire Crocotta Energy (CTA-T). People that own this like it because of the stability of its income. The acquisition will build that case. A good, solid, dividend paying company, with some upside. There are other dividend players that he thinks may be a little more attractive. / Be the first to comment	Price: $5.500 Subject: CANADIAN ENERGY Bias: BULLISH on NATURAL GAS Owned: Yes
	LRE-T		2014-07-16	TOP PICK	Joanne A. Hruska, CFA	Probably the cheapest yield name in the space for similar sized companies. Has been unloved. It’s probably about 2.5X cash flow where the average is 5 to 7 over the longer term. Just made a couple of acquisitions, this expands their plays. Increased their land inventory, and have a new core area. Looking for some good things to come out of this. Very cheap. / Be the first to comment	Price: $5.500 Subject: OIL & GAS Bias: BULLISH on CDN ENERGY Owned: Yes
	LRE-T		2014-06-25	PAST TOP PICK	Martin Davies	(A Top Pick August 9/13. Up 25.9%.) Have converted over to a dividend paying model, and it takes a period of time for the market to understand the sustainability and risks involved. Recently bought some assets that allow them to have a 3rd area in their suite. Still trades at a discount to its peers. / Be the first to comment	Price: $5.640 Subject: Canadian Energy/Service Bias: BULLISH Owned: Yes
	LRE-T		2014-06-24	BUY	Mason Granger	Bought assets that were quite free cash flow positive. Lead by a strong management team. Thinks they are making good strides forward. / Be the first to comment	Price: $5.660 Subject: OIL & GAS Bias: BULL on OIL & GAS Owned: No

[KC8]

retireedcf - Sir, I appreciate the information you have posted and your thoughts on serval gas and oil related stocks.  If you have picked the bottom on these issues including your LRE you are going to look like a genius and will be in for some real nice gains. I am not disputing what you have posted, just going to play the part of the devils advocate.  You are using a fundamental

[retiredcf]

Thanks KC8 - You're right, I'm more of a fundamentalist than a technician. And given the recent selloff in energy stocks, I'm sure that any energy stock you could find would have the same weak technicals. Also catching a falling knife can be dangerous. But IMHO, the selloff has been overdone and eventually a certain level of realism will set in and these stocks will rebound nicely

[specboy2011]

That might explain the only green stock of about 20 I have on a watchlist.But the BNN pop lasts about two hours.My guess the weakness is here until big money turns on the buy...LEG TBE ATH tapping lows all red today...LRE is ridiculously low Lets hope the green holds today

[poubelle1]

Who is Robert Mark and why should we listen to him? Coincidently, Robert Mark (3Macs) just appeared on BNN talking about the energy stocks that he is buying in this enviroment. He's more a fan of NG stocks so his picks were PEY, VET and SU. But lo and behold, before he signed off, he also added a 4th stock that he said was now trading at a ridiculous level

[retiredcf]

poubelle1. Here's the link. As I've frequently mentioned, I provide the info and you can do what you like with it. In other words, if you don't want to listen to him then don't and if you don't like LRE then don't buy the stock. GLTA https://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=461469

[poubelle1]

Retiredcf, I own the stock and was not trying to critisize your efforts. Many analysts come on BNN to push this stock or that stock(usually AFTER they have loaded up) and I just wanted to know if any members have some insight into this guy. What makes him such an expert and is he a trader(nutall) or a longer term investor, etc. Thats all.

[retiredcf]

Fair enough poubelle1. I plucked this info from google. I can't attest as to whether or not he's a trader but as you can see, he's been an oil and gas analyst for 14 years and the 3Macs have a pretty good reputation. GLTA Robert Mark's Overview Robert Mark's Experience Associate Director

[UppersDowners]

Looks like the shine is off as we head closer to $4.00 but it was nice to see us climb. It goes to show how things will turn once sentiment of oil stocks change. It will be quick and these prices will not come around again for a long time.