Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

When to start a position on LRE?

[straightbull]

Buy LRE at the close on the day they announce a dividend cut.

[iwpete]

Parallel (PLT.UN) just anounced a 50% div cut see how they close

[theman0]

It seems to me that the idea that a dividend cut is coming (and expected by so many) that perhaps the news of a cut is already baked into the stocks price. I doubt very much there will be a cut, especially when you consider that oil is going back to $90 by the end of January. Today was the bottom for oil, get ready for a huge rally!

[ILUVDIVIDENDS]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[iwpete]

This drop in the price of oil is just a ploy on the part of the Americans to get people to buy more 4X4 extra big pick-up trucks to boost the economy... screw them, I'm buying another 100 shares of LRE

[straightbull]

Wow....it was $2.40 when the original post was made. It is $1.79 today, and the dividnd has not been cut yet. Can this go to a buck after cancellation of the dividend?

[straightbull]

COS cut dividend in half, stock still tumbles. Dividend cut is not completely baked in today's stock price.

[canne]

In my mind a dividend cut has to come, it doesn' matter if the stock goes down, it is a matter of keeping up with the terms of the loans, that is not perception, it is reality.

[JohnJBond]

The US recent shale production is indeed only a small part of the world oil production. The issue is that over the last three years, global oil demand has been increasing, and is expected to continue to increase.     This global oil demand occured despite very little growth in US oil consumption, and the US economic recession (difficulties post 2007). Now the US is showing strength

[canne]

I rated this a 5 star post, JB, I hope your figures are accurate and that management has the skills to maintain the cash flow above the loan requirements - I have expressed my thoughts to management about the dividend - they are basically the same as what you stated...The oil and gas industry is important to Canada as it is important to every other oil producing country in the world from jobs

[99999gold]

I agree I also gave it 5 stars - I also hope that his figures are accurate but it definitely makes sense, I bet management didn't think of that! and hopefully management have skills and common sense like us. and you ARE definitely right that carbon is bad for everyone that's why I have 3 carbon monoxide detector in my house - one for each floor.  you're also correct that oil/gas

[JohnJBond]

FYI, the Canadian Natural Gas situation is far tighter than the US, and Canadian Natural gas is getting drawn down very quickly presently. You might also want to look at the price of natural gas liquids - its held up very well, and LRE produces lots of it. US natural gas production is a by-product of US shale oil drilling (about 30% of the production is Nat Gas).    As US shale

[JohnJBond]

One of the benefits of putting stress on the Canadian oil sector is it puts extra pressure to build pipelines to the west coast so that Canada can send its oil and gas into the world market, rather than the US market. This is critical to the Canadian oil and gas sector.     If it becomes critical to the Canadian Economy as well, then it becomes critical to all Canadians, not just

[canne]

I hope you are right and the board of governors thinks the same way. The CEO is walking a fine line these days as he has to deal with the major shareholders of this company and (if Sprott is still a substantial owner they will try to look "less bad" in this downturn) and the longer term financial requirements. Seems to me it is prudent to have a little in the kitty rather than

[VentureCapital3]

I agree they should suspend the dividend. But, they said in the last quarter report that they will fight to keep the dividend. So, I think they will keep it up to April 30. LRE forward contracts will allow LRE to do that. If oil price didn't improve in May they will cut it. LRE has a clear dividend policy, it's a good thing. But, I think the dividend should be variable.

[straightbull]

I reiterate.....start a position in LRE on the day they announce a dividend cut. Original post was when LRE was $2.40, now at $1.42. With the current downward pressure on oil price, one may be able to buy LRE at close to a buck when the dividend is cut. This would be a tremendous bargain. Patience!

[99999gold]

1?! that's quite a bearish sentiment but very possible indeed. Another 40pts off? damn, I have noticed that oil sellers' money are going into gold and base metals, or holding cash waiting for more discounts/bargains at some point.

[straightbull]

I reiterate.....start a position in LRE on the day they announce a dividend cut. Original post was when LRE was $2.40, now at $1.27. With WTI currently at $59, and a dividend cut to come, there is more room to fall. Could fetch $1.00 which is just crazy.