Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

WCP

[JohnJBond]

Its worth looking at WCP's release dated Jan 27.

WCP states that they have decided to slow down production, rather than sell in a low price environment.     That may sound obvious, but it also means WCP thinks they can get a higher price later - which may also sound obvious.    Other companies are likely thinking along the same lines.

LRE is likely also going through its reserve calculations presently.

Lastly, an earlier post about increased US gasoline demand should recieve close attention.

The exact US gasoline consuption information is not something you can easily get from the weekly EIA data.    The only way to know for sure, is to look at the sales tax collected from gasoline sales in the US.   That data is delayed by about 5 months.    Some states like California release their data more frequently.    See the following link for some very useful info - it seems there has been a significant increaes in asoline consuption in the US.

https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/28/us-oil-demand-california-kemp-idUSKBN0L127G20150128

The US oil inventory number is not that helpful.     The only consumer of US oil is refiners.  If refiners slow production for any reason, then oil inventories rise.

As far as insider buys, these should never be treated lightly.    While insiders can sell for many different reasons, there is only one reason why an insider buys, and that is because they think they will make money from the purchase.

Outsiders look at a declining share price, and get worried.    When insiders see a declining share price and think "this is nuts, I need to find some cash and buy some of these cheap shares", that is a very very strong signal.

I don't know what happens next, but there are lots of very good signals of what we expect should happen.    ie signes of a big demand response to reduced oil prices, and signes of reduced supply.    What more can you ask for?

[peplare]

I have also been watching gasoline,what happens when peak season gets here. Do  you not also find the 4.00 gap between WTI and Brent a bit odd.

[JohnJBond]

The whole oil price is a bit odd!     There is a lot of lagging data, and a lot of people trading for the moment.    This provides opportunity.    Just as analysts (some) were not calling reduced price in oil back in the summer - others were.    Those that were on the ball, were not the kind that publish their views - they work internally for fund

[tvstock]

https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf Finished Motor Gasoline =  9022K /day 170K increase from previous week Gasoline stock decline by 2.6M for the whole week, that is 370K per day average. That means 170+370 =   540K or 0.54M/day  gasoline consumption increase in the last week, in the US only.   Any fault in this estimate?  And, if that is correct,   remember

[tvstock]

Correction: can only say  Demand > supply by 370K   in last week regarding the drawdown.   Should there be no 170K increase in supply,  Demand > supply by 540K in last week. Cannot definitely say  there is a absolute increse in demand of 540K .Can only say that if and only if last week   supply = demand.   If last week there is already a 100K

[tvstock]

https://oilandgas-investments.com/2015/oil-prices/why-the-turn-in-oil-could-be-closer-than-you-think/ "Gasoline demand in the United Stated over each of the past four weeks is up on average over the prior year by 725,000 barrels per day." "Over the past four weeks the average increase of total oil consumption year on year has been 917,000 barrels per day. Don’t

[OneStar]

Tvstock, Looks like Shaeffer is correct in his article. The media only talks about the increased supply, but soon that supply will start to slow down. With the increases in demand the market should be balanced sooner then later. There may be a supply shortage shortly after there is a balance.

[deccaman]

 a lot of money to be made for deep pocket investors, they are the ones buying at these low prices, the avearge guy has been beatin up and now can't afford to take advantage,, its a sad reality why the rich keep on getting regards r

[OneStar]

Well writen article bt Dan Steffens pointing out the increase demand factor. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Increasing-Demand-For-Refined-Products-Will-Increase-Oil-Prices.html

[JohnJBond]

It will be interesting to see if it is reduced supply, or increased demand that pulls oil out of this trough. We all know this is a supply caused problem, so to a certain degree we are looking to evidence of reduced supply as an early indicator of price reversal. Supply may be quick slow to adjust. Demand on the other hand seems to be increasing much faster. 

[emmitt]

There is a political factor involved here too.