Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

Over Supply Continues to Plague Market

[groupguru]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-holds-on-to-bulk-of-recent-gains-1423031216

Apparently its only the inefficient rigs coming offline, and producers are making up for loss per barrel with volume - but unfortunately their isn't demand.

I can see oil coming down a lot more, hang on tight.

[JohnJBond]

Nice drop in US weekly crude oil field production reported today for the week ended Jan 30/2015. Less than the last three weekly reported numbers.

[tvstock]

Peple are just obsessed about the inventory. Nobody pays attention to the doemsitc oil produciton in lower 48 states drop. Once shale oil drop, it's baiscally irreversible decline until next cycle. Inventory can always be augmented via import and stockpiling.

[JohnJBond]

Reporters can only talk about one simiple thing - inventory is that simple thing Another example is this oil price drop has been characterized as derived from extra supply.    This has caused unintellegent individuals who can only thing about one item at a time, to conclude the problem can only be resolved with reduced supply. Intellegent investors understand the demand response will

[tvstock]

Oil is destined to skyrocket later this year with the nature of shale oil. Banks will hold off all credit until maybe oil above 90 I think. TOG just bought 82000+ boed of light oil   in Sask. Natrual gas prices is more a concern for me regarding LRE.

[tvstock]

Details of the Torc deal mentioned in last messageg is here https://torcoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Acquisition_Jan-2015_FINAL.pdf 128 Million for 1550 boed  = 82580 boed.

[JohnJBond]

Natural gas supplies continued to build in the US despite low gas prices because it is a side effect of shale oil production.    As Shale grew, so did natural gas. As shale drilling declines, so will natural gas. The most interesting part for me is the first potential shale oil wells to get dropped from the drilling scheudule are those with the lowest returns.    I suspect

[ILUVDIVIDENDS]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[flyingempty]

Me too , Iagree!

[johnathamilton]

Agreed John. Looking at Oct. 3 as the starting reference point, production in the lower 48 states has plateaued at +340,000 BPD and is looking set to decline since the last reported production number was just lower than that level.

[Box927]

EIA website. US production is still on the way up. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.cfm#tabs-contract1 Plus tankers are bringing crude to North America for storage. https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/15/oil-arbitrage-waf-idUSL1N0UU1E020150115 I am guessing the storage and production numbers next week will still be on the way up. EIA reports on Wednesday. Regards

[JohnJBond]

You are confusing production with inventory. Production is not the same as inventory.

[Box927]

John please do a little scrolling on that EIA link. There is a graph for both production and inventory. Both are increasing. I still think there will be another build in inventory and increase in production come Wednesday. Regards