Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

this is probably too simple???

[iwpete]

Torq recently purchased 1550 boe/d in Sask. for $128 million.  Based on this I took LRE's 36000 boe/d and divided it by 1550 and multiplied by $128 mm, which gave me $2.972 billion.  So I subtracted the debt of $700,000,000 leaving $2,272,000,000 and divided by the shares outstanding of 193,500,000 and viola $11.75 per share.  The current share price is a discount of over 90%.
Full disclosure I own LRE shares.

[tvstock]

Only 44% of LRE's production is liquid.

[VentureCapital3]

Most LRE's boe/d are gas not oil and there is a big difference in the value of a gas boe/d and an oil boe/d.

[bossu]

Just taking the oil production and using 44% oil or 15800 boe gives $ 6.45/share!!! But 700 MM debt is a huge number and it will take some time to repay. The big question mark is what is going to be the cashflow with a $ 50 and hedging they have for the next 6 months and the rest of the year.Not long ago they were forecasting +/-200MM .So debt/cash flow was 3 and now the number will rise

[ppp]

Geez!!!1! you could put  80000 per flowing  on just the 44% oil, give away  the gas for free and still be worth 1.25 bil take away the debt and this would sell for double what it is trading at. Investors will wake up sooner or later.  

[iwpete]

As far as the debt is concerned WCP is heading for over $1 billion in debt and still doesn't produce anymore than LRE (36000 boe/d).  The only difference is they have hedges into 2016 and the support of their investing base.  As far as what LRE's nat gas is worth since it's 56% of ops, I figure not much especially if nat gas goes to $2.  But the Saudis have figured

[JohnJBond]

Its not hard to convert hydro carbons from one to another, its called organic chemistry. Making gasoline from natural gas is one of the easier conversions. The hard part is building a refinary.     The first (non tiny) refinary in North America to be built in the last 3 decades is in Canada (Sturgeon), and won't be done until the end of 2017.    They are expensive to

[JohnJBond]

Yes way too simple. If you want to go a little less simple, take a dollar per flowing barrel number and apply that to the liquid production.   Add in the value of undeveloped land, gas and facilities, tax loss pools, and substract off the debt. Bottomline, LRE is worth more than its debt, and comes with a major call option on the price of oil and natural gas.   Count yourself lucky if

[iwpete]

I'm bullish on LRE If you have the time go over to PeakProspreity.com and listen to Chris Martenson's interview of Arthur Berman. Art's been around for a long time and knows what he's talking about.https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/91722/arthur-berman-why-todays-shale-era-retirement-party-oil-production