Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

Reason for Very Very Low Price

[rlovett]

By all traditional metrics of market value (e.g., EV/DACF, EV/boed, EV/2P reserves) LRE is more oversold than its peers, even cheaper than a couple (LST, PWT) with higher leverage and weaker hedge programs for 2015. And especially weak this week. Why? Wish I knew. The most obvious strongly negative comparison to other E&Ps in its class is the huge drawdown (86%) on its current credit line, due for renewal (I believe) in May. Is this it?....the threat of a bank shutdown? rl

[hallgg]

Sprott financed these guys huge for over $5 a share where Sprott use to get $14 mil a year in dividends, now nothing. If lre goes to get money in the markets any time soon with these low sp's this will be bad. I know what Kevin O'Leary would say. Tough, for do you buy LRE or Sprott (SCP).

[cowboysmith]

let me contribute something meaningful. LRE has more income from gas than oil. Less long tern upside. LRE LOC is syndicated and a paydown is expected by one. Reason LRE wants to sell assets. If no buyers, LRE will pay LOC down with funds allocated for CAPX. Reason LRE only made a commitment on CAPX for the first six month of $50.0 m. Remember holders of LOC like LRE management - but not all. No

[JohnJBond]

More income from Gas than oil? I think you'll find its about twice as much income from oil than gas.

[Reflect]

It would be nice to hear a logical compelling argument from those who are skeptical as to why they believe LRE is not a buy. Nearly all oil Cdn. oil companies are facing the same dilemma these days. Latest is BTE, fortunately they can offer share offerings but it remains to be seen who will pay 17.35 for the shares & what the shares will be worth after dilution.

[hallgg]

Not true ,strong balance sheets work for T. DTX I got in at low $4 and it made a little comeback because of it.

[zzyy88]

The reason for very low price is alot of people think this is going bankrupt, like I said a few days ago and LRE won't be able to last through low oil... if you've bought recently sell, if you've held from $5 then you may as well hold. Buy in mid 0.30 for a decent shot at making money. GLA

[VentureCapital3]

How much operating cash flow do you think LRE would have for WTI = $70 and gas = $3.50? Assuming the current production. How much CAPEX LRE has to spend to maintain the same level of production? I would be happy to have estimates.

[Muncher]

The issue with LRE is their debt. The simply cannot fund their operations with oil at these prices. Their bonds are trading for $0.40 on the dollar. Bond holders are not expecting to get much back and I suspect the only thing keeping the stock price up is the retail investors. If oil doesn’t recover within the next few weeks shareholders will be left with nothing and bondholder will be getting

[flipher]

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[emmitt]

Muncher, they will be fine for the next couple of weeks. They still have hedges in place. I will start to get worried if oil is below LRE's forcasted price of $50 oil in the second half of 2015.

[Iamwcw]

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