Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

MIE

[qwqw]

"MIE Holdings is an independent upstream oil & gas operating and investment company listed on the Hong

Kong Stock Exchange. MIE has a history of making 100% equity investments internationally, including direct

operation of China oilfield PSCs, China unconventional gas (Australia-listed), oil blocks in Kazakhstan via

Emir-Oil (Brunei-listed), and the Niobrara shale in Colorado via Condor Energy (private). The group has

successfully divested of two Chinese investments, including Pan-China Resources which comprised assets

originally purchased from Ivanhoe Energy in 2012."

[Iamwcw]

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[qwqw]

MIE's market cap ~ $500 mil CDN.Was successfully listed on the main board of Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 14, 2010. https://www.mienergy.com.cn/en/ They're more on the ball than LRE with an updated presentation. It's the best presentation I've ever seen by a mile. Info overload is an understatement,outstanding It has takeover metrics over the last year on pg 29

[qwqw]

The trading comparables on pg 31 are in decending order of EV When you go down the 2015E production column you will soon notice why LRE got their attention.   From pg 3 "EV / Production: C$33,672/BOED (2Q2015)" ?????? They have a strange way of calculating EV,they used an EV of $1.15 bil, they added the extra $200 mil MC and left the debt alone ??????? "EV= C$258mm (current

[qwqw]

Targeted Cost Savings on pg 13. They're ready to trim $22 mil /yr. You're all fired. Finally a company that is aligned with shareholders.

[wilwal]

That is an excellent presentation, thanks for that qwqw. The detail is remarkable.  You can find out more about LRE in the MIE presentation in a concise way than on the LRE web site.   It's obvious that MIE is serious about completing this deal.   If oil breaks $43 and heads into the $30's for the next few months, I wouldn't be surprised to see a downward adjustment on

[ninjadear]

where does the buy and hold investor sit with this company? taking income and putting .59c bids. Not for the sake of getting a 1.04 or something but to be shareholder of this company 5 years down the line, advice for this?

[Iamwcw]

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[wilwal]

Ninjadear, the LRE stock price is highly leveraged to the price of oil. That is, it goes up and down disproportionately to the change in oil and gas prices. If you are going to make any oil investment, you have to start with a thesis on your outlook on oil prices before you even look at an individual company. Because of high debt, LRE is also highly discounted due to high default risk.  So

[ninjadear]

ok do you do written thesis or just consider? Regardless baught in times ago on LRE but I'll take that tid-bit. Ideally resolved debt and higher oil price would make for a good first invesment. I'm working, online education, reading The excellent investment advisor and the intelligent investor. LRE is a good example. I think that chinese men built up canadian economy and I would hope they

[wilwal]

I usually pencil out the numbers based on the parameter assumptions.   In this business, as I say, it's largely about the price of oil.  You have to make your assumptions and go from there.  If you see sub-$50 oil for a long time, there are few good investments in that space. My thesis for LRE was always about one thing only:  that management will resolve the current debt

[ppp]

Here is what I look at number 1 Cost to produce a bbl, this includes Royalities, trans, production, interest, and G and A Next decline rates Lower the better., This is very important, how much money does it cost to replace production?. Then EV value per flowing bbl and reserves. How much is it worth compared to what   is selling at the time. Debt per flowing bbl and to CF LRE was one of

[stingo]

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[wilwal]

What makes oil so difficult to predict is that, like gold, there is a great deal of sentiment factored into prices beyond normal supply/demand dynamics. The technicals say that if $43 holds, then this is the near term bottom.  If it breaks $43 to the downside, then we are looking at a bit of time in the $30's.  The fundamentals demonstrate that there is still a supply problem which

[mckenzie00]

Hi wilwal you have given a thinking mans post for LRE thanks Gregory

[Ahkenahmed2]

Good post.  The only caution I would assert is trusting the narrative from EIA.  The analogy to gold is a good one. Lots of ignorance.