Xebec Adsorption Inc. (XBC-V) C$4.18 Profitable Today, Powering Tomorrow; Initiating at BUY
Event
We are initiating coverage on Xebec Adsorbtion Inc. with a BUY rating and $6.50
target price.
Note: A more detailed report will be published later today
Product Portfolio a Beneficiary of Secular Environmental Trends: Xebec’s core
product portfolio has found applications in the build-out of Renewable Natural Gas
(RNG) and Hydrogen infrastructure. Specifically, Xebec’s adsorption technology
purifies raw input gasses into environmentally friendly fuels that meet stringent
commercial specifications and is a key component of each of its end-market fuel
production. Infrastructure investment that addresses global warming is accelerating,
and is being driven by ‘green’ government fiscal stimulus and by corporations in
Xebec’s case gas utilities that are increasingly being graded on an Environmental,
Social and Governance (ESG) scorecard. We believe that Xebec has a preferential
product in the cleantech end-markets that it serves and, as a result, a compelling
case for significant growth can be made.
Opportunistic M&A Strategy: Xebec is taking advantage of its current valuation
(2021E EV/EBITDAS of 23.5x) to buy related industrial businesses that sell and
service compressed air dryers and filtration systems between 4x and 6x EBITDAS.
Xebec intends to transform this growing geographic network of legacy businesses
into its service and support platform for its Cleantech Solutions segment products.
This strategy not only has a strong fundamental case, but it is also incredibly
accretive to Xebec shareholders, based on our estimates.
Profitability a Differentiator: The company has already demonstrated an ability
to generate positive earnings, which we view as a key differentiator compared with
other cleantech and early-stage growth investments.
TD Investment Conclusion
We believe that Xebec checks several boxes for growth-oriented investors, including:
a strong ESG case featuring both the environmentally focused trends that underpin
its growth narrative and strong insider ownership (CEO: 7.2%), a track-record
of successful project execution, including full-cycle service, profitability, and a
preferential technology that sets it apart. Although a presumption of future growth
is reflected in Xebec’s current valuation, we believe that our NAV calculation
contemplates fairly conservative assumptions while still implying a much higher
valuation. As a result, we are initiating coverage on Xebec Adsorption Inc. (XBC-V)
with a BUY rating and $6.50 target price.