FormerXBC Inc XEBEQ

First a response to ZouZs3, then my outrageous call for Q1

[tamaracktop]

NCU may well be a relatively safer way to play copper, but there's not much leverage there. 
   NCU has 1.8 billion shares outstanding. It wouldn't be one of my picks. lol
   Anyway, enough talking about copper on this board. I'm partly to blame, and I promise to refrain henceforth. People could  be legitimately annoyed. This isn't the place.

   Back to the subject at hand, only 5 more trading days left. 
   I see nobody here has volunteered a guess at Q1 revenues. I'm not surprised, it's a very tough call.
   At the risk of being completely out to lunch, I'll break the ice.
I'll attribute the fact that backlog has grown very little, and the fact that Bainsville has been running full tilt, to my conclusion that Xebec has been working hard to fill backlogged orders. If that's in fact the case, Xebec's organic revenues would be around $20 million, after allowing for some delayed shipments due to covid.

    I'll attribute an additional $6.7 million from Hygear, assuming HyGear had 20% revenue growth in 2020 and 30% growth in 2021, as HyGear's orders have clearly gained momentum. Throw in an additional $3 million from Air flow, acquired on Aug 4th 2020, $2 million from Applied Compression, acquired September 1st  2020, and another $2 million from Titus, acquired in early November, and I come to a total revenue number for Q1 at around $33.7 million.
   That would equate to 176% revenue growth over Q1 2020.
   I know I'll likely look foolish when the numbers do come out.
   I believe in dreaming large. It keeps me going.
   

[RookieTrader04]

Maybe I missed it - but I think ZouZs23 was asking for S/P estimate. I'll add that I don't know enough to make an educated guess; but I agree that Q1 taking us north of 6 could be a stretch. Hope I'm wrong.

[Airbud]

In my humble opinion, I'd be happy to be around where we're at today once the numbers come out. This would mean that there weren't any more "surprises" in the numbers or balance of year guidance. I firmly believe we're multiple strong Q's away from a SP north of $6. 

[newcoin]

If TT is correct at revenue of $33.7M for Q1 then we go over $6 for sure. Maybe not all at once but by end of month.

[Newtrader1982]

no offense to TT but I don't think there is even a remote chance q1 revenues will be that high so I wouldn't get your hopes up I will be quite happy if we are 25 million.

[tamaracktop]

   Yes! No offense taken whatsoever. This board is a forum for differing opinions. It's a true "democracy" as I see it.    I'm well aware that my estimate is very likely way high. The final results are likely closer to be in the area of my April 28th prediction at $28.6 million.    There are two particular difficulties that arise when attempting to

[Newtrader1982]

I assumed Canadian revenues were stated because the purchase price was done in both currencies but US was in brackets but you are right it's not clear at all.

[catchascatchcan]

I don't think we'll see North of $20M nor do I think we'll get a pop from the news.  Greater chance that there's some final negative hangover effects from last quarter that come out in my opinion.  I dearly hope we stay above $4 and get a slow march back to $6 over the next three months.  I'd be over the moon with that in fact.  Call me glass half empty, but

[Newtrader1982]

This comment is a glimpse into how badly 1 poor quarter can have on investor sentiment I am sure this individual is not the only one this soured on the stock. I don't know how you can't see above 20 the numbers come out well above that if you actually work it all out.

[catchascatchcan]

The reason I feel that way is that I suspect some final downside surprises as per my hangover comment below. I think anyone who believes that all the risk is passed here should ask how vehemently they would have argued that there was zero chance we'd ever be in this mess back when we were $10 a share.  I would have been one of those voices.  We all would have bet our first and last

[Newtrader1982]

yeah I agree it's not gonna fly above 6 just cause we do 25 million revenue immediately after the revenues are out but I think a slow rise above 5 in anticipation of new coo and q2 is not out of the question we shall see what happens.

[Magicmike67]

Do not forget that revised YE2020 numbers were not released until Mar 12 meaning there are still significant order cancellations and write downs to come. My prediction is Service/Support - $14.2M Systems - $18.2M less cancellations and writedowns $10M = $8.2M Consolidated - $22.4M

[ZouZS3]

Rick Rule states the following: "Nevada Copper, I don't know so well. Although, I just spent some time with the ex-CEO of Rio Tinto, who has recently joined Nevada Copper board, which is a very interesting endorsement of the company. I've known Yerington, which is the district that its deposits are in, for a very long time, but the fact that the ex-CEO of the second largest mining

[tamaracktop]

I didn't say it was bad, I said it wouldn't be my pick. The stock closed at a new high today. It's market cap was up $18 million. The stock was up one cent.