Post by
tamaracktop on May 07, 2021 3:12pm
Q1
My position is that Xebec's guidance is very likely low, a sentiment shared by the analyst at TD.
I can't imagine Kurt going on BNN and publicly stating "a double" (to use his exact words) if there was even a remote chance of a miss.
Imagine how painful it was for him to announce Q4. It wasn't only painful for the shareholders, amongst whom he's the largest. It hurt him two ways. Two ways profoundly. Kurt is proud of what he's accomplished, as he should be. He's unlikely to make the same mistake twice.
It would be insightful to know how the Q4 debacle influenced Prahbu's departure. That whole episode remains a mystery. An enigma.
We have to remember that some of the revenue shortfall in Q4 came as a result of non-recurring events. Namely, these two, as copied from the Q4 announcement:
Furthermore, Xebec reversed revenues ($1.9 million) previously recognized based on the percentage of completion method due to the deteriorating financial position of a client where the likelihood of payment became uncertain in early 2021. Finally, two contracts that had become unprofitable were canceled by a customer in early 2021 as a result of the delivery delays, due to COVID-19 and other related disruptions. This impact led to a $5.4 million revenue adjustment. The parts and materials used for these contracts have since been inventoried and are expected to be used for future contracts.
Feel free to call me pathologically optimistic, but I'm looking for an upside surprise