FormerXBC Inc XEBEQ

The shorts are running out of time and space

[tamaracktop]

Just a couple of points:

Firstly, I agree with several of ddogold's points

I don't agree with catchascatchcan

catch wrote, "It's been a year since the floor fell out, it'll be close to another before we have regained confidence."  

I couldn't disagree more. The floor "fell out" when Xebec revised guidance on March 12th, just over 8 months ago, and it's definitely not going to take a year to regain confidence. No way.  

Xebec is on the mend, and it's healing fast. Just look at recent sequential financials.

Xebec is more than halfway through what will be a blowout quarter that will produce record revenues of at least $45 million.

The market looks far down the road. Ballard and Plug are both evidence of that. Both are cap'd at many billions and yet neither have ever reported a profit.
Xebec is on the cusp of doing just that, on quarterly revenues of approximately twice those of Ballard I might add.

The shorts are running out of time and space. The upside for shorters here is very limited and the risk is enormous. Xebec isn't going to trade down to book value.

At some point, they're going to get squeezed.

You'll know it when you see it.

[catchascatchcan]

I am using broad strokes, granted, but the facts remain.  I will not argue, and am happy to see, that we're looking brighter operationally.   It has to be mentioned though, that our pending $45M quarter, was entirely at the expense of last quarter.  It's effectively a timing issue from a revenue standpont, and does not put us at a $180M run-rate.  The market is

[catchascatchcan]

Correction - $25B, not 50

[tamaracktop]

That seems fair enough. I'm a born optimist. I have to be. Otherwise I wouldn't be here.

[Gann999]

The bottom is already in has been for a bit now and until that changes and the stock drops below 2.49 you are doing the very thing you are accusing others of speaking in certainties. Q4 bare minimum will be 40 million so yes 45 million is in the bag don't know why you would suggest otherwise. As to the last 4 quarters do you always base your investments on the past or do you look past into the

[whognu1]

here, i fixed it for you good luck

[Gann999]

You are either clueless or actively wanting this company to fail. How is 40 million a guess or hope as you put it they have 80 already and guided towards 120 to 130 year end halfway through q4. So are you suggesting that management is just picking numbers out of their asss 80 plus 40 is the minimum guided of 120 so yes they will have at least that it's not a guess or a hope it's called

[whognu1]

absolutely true yet IF those were PROVEN facts then this would be trading a tad higher moreover, when (if) they do PROVE these numbers then it will indeed be trading much much higher as it is they havent, and it isn't this is a traders dream stock; until it isn't good luck ps. yes, i can oftentimes considered clueless........

[Gann999]

I think you are just using the stock price as a scapegoat for your argument. If those numbers are true which they are by the way in no way does that guarantee we trade higher in the immediate short term. Once the fundamentals improve we will trade higher. So far those numbers don't exist yet but they will. Everyone analyzing the stock is doing so on the previous 4 quarters which does not paint

[whognu1]

no, i am using the collective wisdom of all trading activity (the chart) to determine/confirm my arguement check out WELL-T for a similar chart/stock great mgmt, prospects, aquisitions etc etc etc.........down down down she goes there are lots of show me stocks around some will do just fine, some will vaporize good luck

[Ciao]

No need to say anything else. 

[AlexDonovan]

Using the stock price as the basis for his analysis is the same as everyone here using management's guidance as the basis for their analysis. This stock trades at a relative discount because the market believes management will not reach its guidance. Simply because management puts forth a certain guidance doesn't mean it is a fact and will come to fruition. They used the current stock

[tamaracktop]

I'm sorry but you are quite simply wrong. Kurt is a proud man, as well he should be. He rescued this company from bankruptcy in 2012, and look where it is now. Today it has a global footprint and it will report Q4 revenues of about $48 million. In 2012 it had annual revenues of $2 million. He wouldn't risk the possibility of tarnishing his reputation permanently by revising guidance or

[tamaracktop]

My apologies. 2012 revenues were $15.2 million. I was going from memory, which appears to be failing me these days.

[Hesiod07]

Your memory is usually infallible. Your judgment is usually impeccable. Always appreciate your comments.

[Hesiod07]

This is of course for TT who has done the state some service as Othello put it.

[AlexDonovan]

This is just painfully naive. Setting aside the obvious strawmans, you are assuming hitting guidance is 100% within his control. As we saw 8 months ago, anything can happen. I'm not saying he will miss, I'm saying that's what markets are pricing in. Or maybe markets are pricing in a hit but lower revenues/earnings thereafter than you are, I don't know. But obviously there are

[Gann999]

Ok I will concede that there are things that can happen beyond xebec's control that would cause a guidance miss. Looking at it objectively though that we were halfway through q4 when the company stated the guidance the likelihood of a miss is very slim at best and I don't think that is being naive. The only gamble here is wether or not a company making 120 plus million a year and growing

[Gann999]

I completely disagree with you the stock price can be manipulated up and down the guidance from management cannot. If you think that after last year's q4 management would repeat the same mistake in q4 this year I don't know what to tell you. They would not have revised guidance to eliminate 110 to 120 halfway through the 4th quarter if they didn't have a pretty good grasp on what they

[AlexDonovan]

I kindly suggest you look up the definition of safe harbor statements and see how they apply here. I can give a very simple example why what you are saying is not fact, but opinion. Say one of their customers enters bankruptcy proceedings or informs them they are no longer able to pay. They can no longer claim that revenue (or be forced to impair it) because it has become unlikely they will be

[whognu1]

mike drop............. nice summary, totally agree thanks for taking the time good luck

[Gann999]

You two are ridiculous and fyi it's mic drop

[whognu1]

and that's all you got out of his note? yikes

[Gann999]

I agree with the part that we will never be compared to plug nor should we be. Xebec is not trying to be plug it's focused on it's own strategy and will execute it well.