FormerXBC Inc XEBEQ

Strategizing

[tamaracktop]

Here's how I'd play this, if I was inclined to try to "time the market"

This stock has made virtually insignificant higher lows for two weeks now, 
and is still trading below book value.

We are now 5 weeks from earnings.

The chances of an earth-shattering development that knocks the stock lower prior to
earnings are so low as to be virtually nil.

Gan wrote: 

  "Patience is needed and if I had to venture a guess we will bounce around here until         Q4 is released"

I disagree completely. The market will know beforehand if the results are likely 
to be good, and if so, the stock will rally accordingly prior to earnings.

If I owned Xebec at much higher prices, and if I had real money I could spare for a few weeks, I'd buy stock here and average down my ACB.

If the stock does indeed rally substantially before the news, I would keep the new shares because there is a downside "cushion."

If the stock doesn't rally, I'd sell the new shares at a capital loss (using your new lower ACB) , and I'd have that loss to carry forward indefinitely as well as having a new lower
ACB on my remaining shares.

Hypothetically, if you sell your newly acquired shares ten of twenty cents above their cost, the excercise won't have cost you a penny, but youll still have a capital loss to carry forward and you've reduced your ACB on your remaining shares as well as having positioned yourself for a greater and faster gain if the numbers are good.

If you believe the downside at today's price is very limited, the risk/reward in this approach is compelling.

You have $20,000 in your chequing account, you take it out and buy 10,000 Xebec.
If it doesn't work, you sell the Xebec and put the $20 grand back in your chequing account.

If it does work, you have 10m more shares of Xebec at a sharply lower ACB for your all of your shares.

[tamaracktop]

Abridged version... You buy Xebec today. It doesn't do anything for the next 3 weeks. You sell the shares you bought today and put the money bank in your bank. You have your money back, but you nw have a capital loss to carry forward, and your ACB on your remaining shares is lower than it was. In some cases, much lower.

[Gann999]

what you suggest is true only in the scenario that this is the bottom and in 30 days after buying you can sell them for a slight "profit" otherwise you are just setting yourself up for more pain should the stock trade lower.

[tamaracktop]

Firstly, there is no 30-day rule for the strategy I described, and secondly, you're stating the obvious, which should be clear to everybody and which I pointed out specifically by clearly stating my opinion: "This stock has made virtually insignificant higher lows for two weeks now,  and is still trading below book value. We are now 5 weeks from earnings. "The chances of an

[ZouZS3]

All the way to 2024. TT Gang! Still looking forward to our celebration.

[Gann999]

all I'm saying is if as you stated to carry forward a loss indefinitely and lower acb the 30 day before and after rule would apply otherwise you can't claim the loss.

[Possibleidiot01]

"For the capital loss to be allowed by the Canada Revenue Agency, you must wait at least 30 days before repurchasing the security. ... Although you are not permitted to repurchase an identical security within 30 days, you are allowed to buy a similar stock and still claim the tax loss on the shares you sold." According to this , I could buy Greenlane ( a similar stock) but rebuying

[tamaracktop]

We are all very aware of superficial loss rules which usually come in to play around tax time. That isn't the case at all here. The only way that someone who employs the strategy I suggest is if the stock is lower prior to earnings, which I very much doubt it will be. If it is only 10 cents higher, the shareholder will be no worse off than if he had done nothing, but will have a tax-loss carry

[tamaracktop]

On the other hand, the stock could double and the individual will be infinitely better off than he would be if he does nothing. The point is that the risk/reward parameters here are awesome. The stock is below book value! The downside is SFA. The current market cap can be justified by Xebec's proprietary technology alone. Last I checked the company had 16 patents.

[whognu1]

i can't not reply to this TT nonsense* *proviso - unless you own zero XBC shares, and i doubt that guy is here................ the one thing i do agree with is there have been a series of higher lows, which as i and others have stated, is very good and COULD be indicative of the bottom being in without time, this is a guess at best many people here appear to already  have far more

[Kronyboy]

You asked an honest question and I will give you an honest answer. If this spec stock, which is less than 15% of my overall portfolio, which is largely-if-not-mostly comprised of Canadian Blue Chips (such as TD, whoowie, what gains I've experienced this year) goes down to $1, I will most likely make a chunk purchase of about 8-10K shares. This will lower my average from $3.21 at 30,700

[tamaracktop]

Ha. That's not at all what I was saying. Can you not read? You called me full of it all the way from $2 to $11 in 10 months. My posts are for people looking 5-10 years down the road. Lets just see how someone would have made out if their acb was $4 today and they doubled up today at $1.85 bringing their ACB down to $2.92. We'll check 4 day's before earnings. Until then keep your stupid