FormerXBC Inc XEBEQ

Waga isn't exactly shooting the lights out

[tamaracktop]

$16.8 million CAD revenues for 2021, up 29%.

3 installations commissioned in 2021.

I'm quite confident Xebec has a definite advantage in Quebec.

It may be true that each company caters to a different market, but that's only true to an extent.

The differences are the volumes of RNG production and the degree of customization in their offerings.

Waga is pursuing the very business Xebec has essentially abandoned with their plans to maximize margins through standardization. 

Don't rule out a symbiotic relationship evolving between these two companies. It's interesting that the two were essentially "partners" in hosting the RNG forum, after Energir and GNR hooked up only one rung above them in the "hierarchy", the provincial government of Quebec being at the top of course.

Waga has signed 2 projects in Canada in 2021.
They don't seem a threat at all.

In fact, if Waga does penetrate the Canadian market at all, which remains to be seen, they may seek to increase production at any of their as yet fictional projects at some point in the future by incorporating Biostream units.

Here's the important point. 

Read this:

   "2021, the ten WAGABOX® units in operation produced 145 GWh (494,000 mmBtu) of RNG, a 26.7% year-on-year increase. The increase in production is due to consistent improvements in the operation of WAGABOX® units (the technology pushed production up 18%) and to the fact that the three units commissioned in 2020 were operational for the entire year 2021."

This is very important, and I referred to it in an earlier post when I pointed out that Xebec will see no revenues from Boo projects in the fiscal year they are announced.

The revenue stream from each Boo project won't kick in until 16 to 20 months after construction has started.

Herein lies the beauty of it.

Each Boo project will have a long-term off-take contract with a partner to purchase the RNG produced.

This will result in a very transparent and predictable revenue and cash flow model that analysts will be able to take into account when calculating Xebec's net present value.

This is true for each and every Boo project announced going forward.

I might be wrong, but I doubt it.

The major point here is that I haven't seen a single research report that has taken into account even the remotest possibility of Xebec profiting from another source of recurring revenues from something called Boo.

It's almost as if the analysts haven't even heard of it.

It's my opinion that Boo is a hidden arrow in Xebec's quiver.

 

One that may be just beginning to dawn on the market.

 

One that will make Xebec leave the analysts' targets in the dust when Xebec starts announcing contracts, to everyone's surprise but the market itself.

[ZouZS3]

My question to you T is how do you feel your question at the Investor's day was answered? Out of a hundred questions, Brandon picked yours...why? In a 3 part question you asked if the biostream production in Blainville will be dedicated primarily to the market in Quebec, if demand from Quebec alone exceed blainville capacity and government incentives. Munro said: the quick answer is it will be

[ZouZS3]

Agreed. I think xebec's advantage is having developped standardized units at lower prices to target smaller farmers. Waga handles larger sophisticated projects and builds the main pipeline that will supply Energir (state owned gas utility Co.) with the RNG from a whole region. Then, Xebec builds smaller pipeline that connects to Waga's pipelines to distribute their RNG to Energir as well

[savyinvestor333]

Maybe Waga should stick to making BEEF

[Ciao]

The founders were former Air Liquide employees,, they're not making beef but some good dough. The company's valuation is a lofty 35 X revenues or 760M Euros. It's a small world, all the players are aware of each other. If WAGA wanted to expand their portfolio of offerings and buy growth they could take a run at XBC. Their market cap is over $1B Cdn.

[tamaracktop]

If your numbers are correct, and if they paid with their paper, that would be a highly accretive  acquisition regardless of what premium they offered. I'm so confident in you I won't bother to check. At the same EV/S multiple, Xebec would trade at $27.34 . Personally, the last thing I'd like to see is a hostile bid for Xebec, but in a way I would. Maybe Filoux would finally

[Ciao]

It's an illustration of how undervalued xbc is relative to some other public companies in the same space. It makes them vulnerable to a takeover. A bid will impart some pain to the SHORT. It's their doing to create this cheap asset. Cheap assets will remain cheap for only so long, they have artificially depressed the share price. Where would xbc share price be if they started to cover say

[tinkvid]

This is what I have been thinking that will happen with XBC, a takeover of some sort friendly or hostile....A company like Air Products is in expansion mode....Maybe, just Maybe....IMHO

[Ciao]

About 20 years ago, there was the mega merger between Air Products / Air Liquide.  Six years ago Linde and Praxair also made a mega merger.  These types of huge mergers are now less likely to occur given the smaller playing field. If any large industrial gas player wants to go greener, XBC offers a clear path with on site GaaS / gas generation (including medical oxygen, hydrogen