FormerXBC Inc XEBEQ

TD Flash Note - calling BS

[Ciao]

Calling BS, he changed his EBITDA guidance without changing rev forecasts to account for the SCS MOU?

TD View: In our Xebec Investor Day note (full report), we incorporated this large compression order into our 2022 and 2023 EBITDA estimates of $1.7 million and $9.9 million, respectively, as we believed that with high conviction, this MOU would be converted into an order and, therefore, we view this announcement as a confirmation of our view. As a result, we are not making any changes to our estimates at this time.

I don't see how rev from SCS MOU was incorporated, here are the forecasts after Q4 was reported and after Investor's Day

after Q4

Estimates (C$)

Year            2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E

Sales ($mm) 56.5 125.9   193.5   222.0

Sales ($mm) (old) – 122.1 193.4 219.9

EBITDA ($mm) (27.8) (11.7) 10.5 21.2

after Investor's Day

just look at the old and new sales est., marginal increase in 2022 and 2023 rev., doesn't add up to about $100M USD from the MOU), he adjusted EBITDA but not rev in his model?

Estimates (C$)
Year                    2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E
Sales ($mm)          56.5 125.9 189.9 232.9
Sales ($mm) (old)            – –   193.5 222.0
EBITDA ($mm) (27.8)      (11.7) 1.7   9.9
EBITDA ($mm) (old)           – – 10.5  21.2

[sjc444]

I wouldn't be to fast to ignore Aaron. Seems to me doing the opposite of his recommendations would be a winning strategy if you're a trader (I'm not).

[retiredcf]

Clearly we're going to have to take TD (and Aaron) with a large grain of salt for the forseeable future. Under the "once burned, twice shy" mantra, he has gone from being adventuresome and optimistic to exercising something beyond extreme caution. Must have been a helluva chewing out that this team received when some of their earlier pie in the sky targets got blown to pieces. GLTA

[Ciao]

I'm thinking he had cut cleantech system rev between Q4 and investor's day reports and added back the SCS MOU revenues. Nonetheless his optimism in the cleantech space has been reserved for the likes of ANRG, NETZ (his newest favorite), and NXH.

[Ciao]

Opposite George analogy...

[tamaracktop]

It's very simple actually This analyst is so narcissitic he actually thinks his readers have short memories and actually believe everything he writes. The facy is that he didn't incorporate this contract into his numbers in any way, shape, or form. The good news is that we can all take comfort in the fact that the market is far smarter than any analyst. Smarter by multiples. Ha! At $2

[tamaracktop]

From my post at 10:30 I'm on a bit of a roll so I'll push my luck. Why not? I'm a bit surprised by the volume so far today. The stock is $2.46 on 794,000 shares at 12:37. I would have thought the volume would have been much higher by now, but I interpret this surprisingly low volume as a major positive. There was no explosion of interest this morning that would have produced an

[ZouZS3]

2.70 would be just about right

[Gann999]

I think 2.70 is a little optimistic for today maybe tomorrow?

[ZouZS3]

I agree, actually I would be quite happy if we can close above 2.50 by end of day and 2.70 by end of week

[tamaracktop]

True. It maybe optimistic, but I think you're forgetting something. Meanwhile the stock is doing some "backing and filling" over the lunchtime lull. Or, in more BS brokerage jargon, this is known as " the pause that refreshes". It's the close that counts. I expect the close will be "entertaining."

[Gann999]

I hope it takes a nice big gulp of Gatorade for it's next run.

[tamaracktop]

Lunchtime is now officially over in "Brokerworld". $2.44 now on 880,000 shares at 2:05. It's hardly traded in the last 2 hours. Not even a scent of any selling pressure. Now we get to dee what happens in the final two hours, if anything. Particularly the last 20 minutes.

[tamaracktop]

Suddenly several posters here who have long been silent, but have suddenly become experts, now that the stock has turned higher. I only ask this. Where were they at the worst of times?

[Francois33]

Been here for a while like probably many others... No need to mumble all they long to enjoy my investment. Like many others. Must admit that many aliases are watching the paint drying here and are pushing only on one side, theirs. Not an expert but 40 years in environment & oil industries... just enough to enjoy this little story. Very funny, sometimes, talking too much is like not

[tamaracktop]

Not at all sure if that was addressed to me, or what it even meant. Go ahead and write it in French. I'm from Montreal. I'm bilingual.

[Gann999]

I don't think the board is as small as you think lots of eyes on this board. 8 of the top ten gainers this month post on the xebec board some almost exclusively. Many just read and don't post but lots of eyes on xebec now.

[tamaracktop]

This morning at 10:29 Tomorrow, after the close, I'll predict exactly what happened.

[Ciao]

What did you think happened?

[Ciao]

TTop, what was your point here?

[tamaracktop]

My point was that I predict Xebec will close at $2.40 yesterday. A very healthy 5.5% consolidation after a 16% gain the day before. Take note that yesterday's volume on the TSX was very close to half the volume the day before. Quite coincidently close to exactly one half. This stock now has tremendous support between $2.02 and $2.08. The risk/reward parameters today make it a screaming

[Ciao]

So really you had no point at 10:29 am on Thursday.

[tamaracktop]

We are not on the same page here. I was very definitely making a point when I posted this at 10:29 on Wednesday morning: "It's very simple actually This analyst is so narcissitic he actually thinks his readers have short memories and actually believe everything he writes. The fact is that he didn't incorporate this contract into his numbers in any way, shape, or form. The good news