FormerXBC Inc XEBEQ

Absolutely nobody wants to hear the bull case

[tamaracktop]

100% typical near market lows

Remember the Scotia analyst's bull-case one-year target, quite coincidentally published when the stock was at 78 cents?

Bull Case (C$4.50)

Our high case assumes $75 million of M&A per year through 2026E, along with higher levels of gross margins, revenues, and revenue backlogs relative to the base case.

• Gross margins: Systems – increase of 150 bp in 2023E and 250 bp in 2024E from 22.5% in 2022E and flat thereafter. Support – recurring 42.5%.
• Revenue: Systems – growing at 11% per year from $111 million in 2023E. Support – growing to $105 million and $125 million in 2022E and 2023E, respectively, and 42.5% thereafter.
• Revenue backlog: Systems – growing at 15% per year. Support – growing at 40% per year.

Our target price under this scenario equates to a 21.6x 2024E EV/EBITDA valuation.

What if he's right??

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[tamaracktop]

Just trying to convince people to ride out the bear.                  Very confident people selling here will regret it soon enough. In it for the long haul.

[Gann999]

It's true I would totally regret missing out on possibly making half my money back in two years good times

[tamaracktop]

New low on Apple today. Greenlane 1 cent above its low. You aren't alone. Ride it out.

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[AlwaysLong683]

Case in point: the vast majority of Canadian tech names were down anywhere from 2 to 10% today, yet MTLO was a big winner, jumping 1/2 a cent to 0.04 for a one-day gain of over 14%. Attention speculators and day-traders......

[tamaracktop]

babedinkleman made fun of me yesterday for pointing out Xebec was a top % gainer in Canada. I would have thought it unnecessary to point out that my observation wasn't borne of excitement about yesterdays move itself, but rather of what it might portend. Aparently is was and apparently it did,.... portend something. We don't know yet why it happened, but a tremendous surge in volume on

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[tamaracktop]

I have hundreds of people involved here at my urging. I owe it to them to see them through these troubled times. That's all these are and they will pass. They always do, for companies that survive market maelstroms. Xebec won't just survive. It will thrive.

[tony08]

TT could it be that you feel unnecessarily responsible for those "poor investors YOU coerced into buying Xebec BLINDLY"   Don't get me wrong, your experience and your analyzes of the stock market and Xebec stock in particular are very much appreciated, but to claim that it's because of you if these investors bought those stocks , I find that exaggerated.   I

[tamaracktop]

Perhaps I misspoke. When I said I have hundreds invested "here", I didn't mean "here on this board", I meant "here invested in Xebec." This would include personal friends and former clients. It's far easier for me to communicate with them through posting than it would be sending personal emails. Hence my daily posts.

[filoux004]

TT, may I suggest the 'cc' function or create a group listing yr friends and former clients a voil un Click on email and your post is widely distributed, it's a pretty cool feature. Peace, long XBC

[tony08]

If your personnal friends did'nt have experience in the market, i sincerely hope for you that you warned them that by buying XBC they were buying a stock with a lot of potential but which is still speculative..... Otherwise I sympathize with you because it must not be easy when they ask you what happens with their money.

[tamaracktop]

I did it professionally for 30 years from '82 to 2012. There were several periods of market turmoil over that period. Certainly I've had many unhappy clients over the period, but I never once had one submit a formal complaint

[tony08]

fair enough TT...I am confident that soon, both you and all your friends will be relieved to see the sp increased. And if they can wait a few years more, they could even make a good profit

[tamaracktop]

It won't take that long, I don't think. Many of them first bought Xebec at 40-50 cents when I first started preaching it here in October 2017. They've been on a world-class Rollercoaster. The difference between Xebec and a Rollercoaster is that a Rollercoaster makes lower highs

[whognu1]

well double titanium, that's a bit rich XBC is a mere 4 days from a fresh 3+ year low @ .73 Having broken .76 the downtrend has still not been broken but feel free to declare .73 as the final low again......... good luck   quote=tamaracktop]It won't take that long, I don't think. Many of them first bought Xebec at 40-50 cents when I first started preaching

[filoux004]

C'mon Whognu1 since your are member since 2015 you must of bought CBC at 40-50cents?! Peace

[whognu1]

nyet comrade Yet still holding my own 'special' group of micro caps that have been kicked to the curb just like zebec sold them all down to very small positions (at losses mostly) and will be buying them all back this summer (likely, and at lower prices) not the time to be a hero i fully expect all 'my' micros to drop 50% from here There is no panic in the markets

[Gann999]

Usually wrong? You have been pretty much spot on for a long time

[whognu1]

Blah blah blah ginger (farside, look it up) blah blah blah the low is in 17th time since $11 you've called the low eventually you'll be right maybe it's this time good luck to you  your track record of calling lows is, in the words of Cramer, 'sub-optimal'  

[Gann999]

I just said you have been right for a very long time now and this is your response. Should have listened to you and sold at 4, 3, 2 you warned everyone

[whognu1]

Gann i was responding to TT i have been out of Xbc for quite a while i do have a few other turkeys that I own small positions in because there is a business hidden there and I am awaiting full on panic to reposition back That's all  

[Gann999]

Ahh ok cause it seemed like a response to my post as per the number of re's. I too think there will be a full panic moment as xebec posts further loses in q2 and if the credit facility expires with no news of an extension or increase. But from my understanding even if it expires they would still have a year to pay back amounts owing not sure if this is correct.

[whognu1]

Gann  im not even looking specifically for Xbc panic, just market pandemonium which whacks all stocks good or bad I believe we'll know it when we see it good luck  

[Gann999]

Yeah it's coming or not. But it will drag xebec with it if it does.

[tamaracktop]

17 time? I don't think so, but admittedly I've been wrong several times since $3 ish. Anyway, the low on Wednesday was all of 3 cents below the low on May 19th at 76 cents. 3 cents....Splitting hairs.

[Gann999]

so seems you feel it's true value is 3 dollars from this post and anything above it is overvalued

[tamaracktop]

True value right now is 91 cents, but in the market true value changes every day.

[tamaracktop]

That's right. And the day after that low it tested it again by opening down and only 1 cent above it at 74 cents. That was the low of the day, and now it's up 24% from there a mere 4 days later in a market that's making new lows. Maybe you didn't notice. The low is in.