FormerXBC Inc XEBEQ

Stop quibbling back and forth

[tamaracktop]

Here are 4 simple words to wrap your heads around

Its a bear market.

I get the impression some of you are too green to have ever seen one.

The February 2020 bear market at the onset of Covid didn't really count.

It was the shortest bear market in history.

[Zebec2021]

Looks like someone has finally had a reality check!!!!!!!.....just....... minimum,   8 months late!  "it's a bear market" ....lolol!!  

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[tamaracktop]

Entirely possible, if not probable, but at less than half of book, Xebec has downside protection many other stocks like Greenlane don't have.The vestiges of the "Kurt effect".

[Zebec2021]

and now some relevance to babes point!!  an old dear couple that the wife and i know..lost the matriarch....that was  end of May....house was put on market and sold 150k over ask at $850,000 in 5 days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!this house would have sold for $500,000 range 3 years prior!!!!!  daughter of couple now list her house.....it's now middle of June....it lists for $1

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[AlwaysLong683]

Shades of the 2007-2010 housing crisis in the USA...?  Canada never experienced that at the time, and sub-prime mortgages were the main culprit in the US, Still, if Canadian housing values plummet while interest rates keep rising, even those who locked in fixed rates for longer terms may find they still have negative equity in their homes (current market value - mortgage outstanding).

[ferret_ca]

a few might but the average homeowner has a heck of a lot of equity in their homes, prices would have to drop 30-50% to have any effect on most people who live in their homes and even then if you are staying put the value of the home. the average canadian homeowner has 73% equity in their home, that is a far cry from the situation in the usa. plus supply demand is still in the homeowners favor

[tony08]

Hey you're right Gann, when Ferret talks about mortgages and real estate market he makes a lot more sense than when he talks about Xebec value.

[AlwaysLong683]

Most who have owned their home for a decade or more should be fine re. equity in their houses. but those who have purchased new homes over the past few years are the ones at risk. They paid top dollar, so if the market dries up due to higher interest rates and/or inflation, or they are forced to sell their home because fast rising cost of living may make their mortgage payments too much to handle,

[Gann999]

Correct but true negative home equity would require that they bought the home with zero down nobody really does that. If you put 20 percent down on an 800k home you already have 160k equity in the home. House prices would have to drop 20 percent to wipe out your equity and 40 percent to put you underwater significantly on your mortgage I highly doubt prices will drop that far. Even if they did are

[AlwaysLong683]

Excerpt from Yahoo Finance article: Canada real estate: Home sales, prices plunge from highs as interest rates rise   Alicja Siekierska   Fri, July 15, 2022   .....The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said on Friday that sales in June fell 23.9 per cent compared to last year. Declines were across three-quarters of all markets in the country, led by the most

[tony08]

Today's economic crisis is unlike any other I have experienced.   In the early 1980s, when inflation and interest rates soared, there was recession and unemployment. Today, there is no unemployment but rather a lack of employees to fill all the jobs offered...   In addition to the 1987 crash, there was the tech bubble in 1999, the banking crisis in 2008, but nothing

[tamaracktop]

Bear markets aren't confirmed until the indices trade more than 20% off their highs, but their duration is measured from peak to trough. The average duration of the 12 bear markets since 1945 is 388 days. The Nasdaq peaked in late November 2021, and the S&P peaked 3 weeks later. This bear is past middle-aged.

[Zebec2021]

this will persist longer than the herd believes it will! ...and yes nasdaq peaked in Nov....when i sold off my U.S. tech!!

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Zebec2021]

100% agree .......!!!!!!!  

[tamaracktop]

Again you may be right, but I would point out that many bear markets start because of things we've never seen before. The banking crisis of 2008, accompanied by the biggest bankruptcy ever when Lehman Bro's went under, would be one. The Covid pandemic would be another. Often bear markets occur at times of malaise, when everyone thinks the world is coming to an end. Things have always

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Gann999]

I think you are ignoring the fact that many have built up years worth of equity in their homes already and are not in the dire straights that you make it seem like. Unless you maxed your borrowing potential on variable rates and just bought your home in the last 1 or so the rising interest rates are just an inconvenience and yes your house is worth less so what.

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Gann999]

pretty sure I literally said in the post you responded to unless you bought in the last year or so and maxed your borrowing but whatever

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Gann999]

You do realize they stress test all these people for higher interest rates right and I doubt it's 10 percent of the population not being able to pay their mortgage you get a second job and buckle down

[ferret_ca]

no idea where babe is getting his mtg numbers from but pmts doubling is absolute nonsense.  lets take a 500k mtge ammortized over 25 yrs at 3%  pmts are 2366/mo. 5%  2908/mo 6%  3199/mo looking back historicaly mtge rates of 5+% were fairly common and real estate prices managed to increase  in many of these years. will prices drop now, obviously yes ,but how much will

[Gann999]

wow I actually agree with you ferret_ca babe obviously doesn't know how mortgages work the payments don't double because the interest rate went up a couple of percent that's not how it works.

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Gann999]

Looks like you not that great at basic math either 2366 to 3200 is not 50 percent it's not even 40 percent

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[tony08]

I maintain that it probably depends on which region and especially which province you are referring to.   In most regions of QC, for the moment if sales have dropped it is not because the market is no longer good, it is because, as Ferret said, there are not enough House for sale.

[Gann999]

Well babe when you start spewing nonsense about mortgage payments doubling and 10 percent of the population going underwater on their mortgage it's fair to correct you and bring you back to earth. Yes prices are coming down it's a good thing not a bad thing it was getting out of hand and we need a more balanced housing market. There are also these things called down payments for mortgages

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[ferret_ca]

so where is your city??? and are talking dropping from prices going above asking?, it sure hasn't dropped that much here.

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[tony08]

Fortunately, lately the banks have lent for mortgages by refusing all those who could not support an increase (of about 2% I believe) in anticipation of this increase which was foreseeable.   But I agree that anyone who is in debt to the ceiling with their credit cards in addition to their mortgage won't be able to get through it.

[filoux004]

What's funny is this was not a Black swan event like in 2008 where literally overnight the credit default market collapsed. We've been warned for over a year that rates were going to go up and the superintendent of housing tried is best to tighten the lending rules and yet .... anyways Peace vive le Tour de France

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[tony08]

Only one thing that you must keep in mind is that "Canada Mortgage and housing" is a non sense for me because the house value in Vancouver is way over the rest of Canada, then there is toronto.....and after only we get to QC houses valuation.  I think that for mortgage and finance we must think in term of province.

[babedinkleman]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Zebec2021]