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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum YourWay Cannabis Brands Inc YOURF

YourWay Cannabis Brands Inc. is a Canada-based cannabis company. The Company builds their own brands, partnering with others, and supporting retail partners. Its brands cater to a range of different needs. Its brands include Venom Extracts, Old Pal, Airo, Ionic, Zoots, Wicked, Hi-Guys, Cowlitz Gold and Dab-Dudes. Ionic is a small batch luxury cannabis oils brand-based out in Washington state... see more

GREY:YOURF - Post Discussion

YourWay Cannabis Brands Inc > Current and Exit 2021 Valuations
View:
Post by nozzpack on Dec 17, 2020 8:39am

Current and Exit 2021 Valuations

2020 exit revenue run rate , based on observed $5 m per month for Oct and December is $60 million CAD.

Ebitda Rate has been 12 %.

In a recent post, the considerable expansion in production capacity, market expansion and new products has enabled me to scope 2021 exit annual revenue runrate of about $300 million.

To be conservative, I will divide this by 2 to arrive at $150 million as the 2021 annual revenue exit runrate.

Given efficiencies of volume, Ebitda should increase and i have arbitrarilly chosen 16 % for 2021.

Annual Revenue Runrate at exit 2021


Venom  Arizona Medical..Exited 2020 at $60 m runrate.......$75 million 2021
Adult Arizona Recreational Market........................................$70 mllion  2021
Venom California Market ( Med + Recre )..............................$60 million 2021
EasyRider brands...................................................................$35 million 2021
Hashbone...............................................................................$20 million  2021
Allied.......................................................................................$15 million 2021
Other new Products................................................................$15 million 2021
Dreamy...................................................................................$10 million 2021

Total Estimated 2021 Annual sales Runrate ............................$300 million
Divide by 2 to be conservative................................................$150 m
This is 5 times its 2020 annual sales runrate of $60 million.


Current valuation multiples for Ebitda is 24 times...

https://marketrealist.com/2019/03/comparing-the-valuation-multiples-of-cannabis-stocks/

T
hat is, current peer based valuation $60 million annual revenue runrate entering 2021 and 12 % Ebitda rate  is 24 X $12 m = $175  million or about $0.75  per share

At exit 2021, with $150 million annual revenue runrate and 16 % Ebitda
exit 2021 valuation will be $150 million  X 16 %  X 24  = $575 million which is about $2.50 per share

Trade expansion will continue in 2021 beyond those already secured.

This makes my 2021 valuation particularly conservative
Comment by nozzpack on Jan 08, 2021 9:37am
Current valuation multiples for Ebitda is 24 times... https://marketrealist.com/2019/03/comparing-the-valuation-multiples-of-cannabis-stocks/ That is, at DEC Exit $60 million revenue runrate and 12 % Ebitda rate, current valuation is   is 24 X $7.2 m = $175  million or about $0.75  per share. Another estimate can be obtained from Price to sales which is currrently 11.2 ...more  
Comment by nozzpack on Mar 02, 2021 2:00pm
Estimated Revenue Runrate Exit 2021 Revenue  expansion is occurring for a variety reasons ( 1)...expanding its production  capacity in Arizona and California 10 fold. Hollister Cannabis Company is currently operating in only  2,800 sq. ft. of the 35,000 sq. ft. facility. (2) The Company expects its California brands to be available in the Arizona market in the first ...more