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October 09, 2013 12:17 pm
The Company has clearly articulated its strategy to diversify our investment through new properties in mining-friendly jurisdictions. EAG is evidence of that already underway. Indonesia continues to present challenges unforeseen years ago by any of us. This said, I do not anticipate any near-term changes to the East Elang arrangement. Holding on to that property in the Vale JV has no costs attached. The entire neighbourhood surrounding that property has been very active, with excellent results. With no cost to hold, sit and wait until the forestry permit is awarded. It will come. When, we don't know. So, on that front, sit.
On West Lombok, the combination of local politics and an absolutely bone dry market for foreign investment there limits the available options. I'm looking for a liquidity event that allows SA to hold on to some level of minority interest in the property along with a cash payment. In an equally dry market for equity financing world-wide, anyone who can gather a lump of cash can take advantage of low-priced investments, including in mining-friendly jurisdictions such as Canada. So… it's tough all over. If you can parlay what you have into opportunities to lever your investment with undervalued properties, in more friendly regions, and with timely horizons, you'd be prudent to do so.
At 8 cents, SA has a market cap of $8,737,161. At 10.5 cents (when I last did this calculation), EAG had a market cap of $39,221,578. SA's 26.2% interest in EAG is, at this level, worth $10,276,053… or 9.4 cents per share. In other words, SA's investment in EAG, alone, is worth 17.6% more than SA's current market cap. This imputes zero value to the two Indonesian properties. It also imputes no value to the company's cash on hand, in the range of $3.9 million. Actually, the Company's holdings outside of EAG are valued by the market in negative territory. If credit were given for cash on hand, SA would be valued at 13 cents, or a premium of 62.3% over its current trading price.
Anticipating an influx of cash for a West Lombok deal (at what level, I cannot begin to guess), this premium in implicit value can only rise. By my calculation, every addition of $1 million to the treasury exacerbates the discrepancy by another 11.4%, if dollar for dollar value is assigned to cash on hand. Moreover, if we assume that the partner brought in on West Lombok successfully moves the property toward production (of the epithermals) in a timely manner, which I think is clearly the intent/purpose of deal, with significant annual tonnage mined, the real kicker depends on what percentage of the property SA retains. Any future cash flow would be enormously accretive to share price. Right now, there is $0 value credited to this potential.
EAG is actively drilling. I anticipate some drilling results out in the next couple of months. This drilling activity has been guided by hundreds of previous holes, and will be employed to update the compliant resource estimate. This is on top of the 100+ holes already drilled, but not yet incorporated into the existing compliant resource estimate. I'd be very surprised if there are not internal calculations already in place to incorporate these holes, to which the current program of drilling will also be added.
Here's the bonus. If Southern Arc's share price were to rise from 8 cents to 10 cents, that's a gain of 25%. On the other hand, if, resulting from success in its current drilling program, EAG share price rises by 25%, here's what happens to Southern Arc's share of that investment. Attributing no value to Southern Arc for cash on hand or for the Indonesian properties, its investment (and in turn, ours) in EAG should reflect a gain of 48% in Southern Arc's own share price. In other words, a new invested dollar in Southern Arc is leveraged through the Company's investment in EAG. If you think EAG share price will rise, you will gain more by investing indirectly… through the undervalued Southern Arc share purchase.
The lack of assigned value for cash-in-hand makes this relative advantage even greater. The prospects for a near-term liquidity event related to West Lombok… even more. In a fluid market (no where in sight these days), this inequality in the valuation of related companies would invoke an arbitrage process, by which the equilibrium price would be achieved. This has not taken place, but it will. When the markets show signs of life, and more information is known about EAG drilling (if successful), and some resolution on the West Lombok property comes into focus… an equilibrium price between the two will be achieved. Until then, my money is going into Southern Arc.
It's been posted here that there can be no insider trading blackout for Southern Arc. I don't follow the reasoning on this conclusion. I disagree with it. Of course, I do not have any direct knowledge of such a blackout. I do maintain regular enough contact with the Company, but have heard nothing of a blackout. It is not permitted even to say that such a state exists because that would, in itself, provide insider information.
Here's why I think there's a blackout on insider trading for Southern Arc. He bought 1,000,000 shares of EAG in August of this year for between 12 and 13 cents. It bears noting here that Mike Andrews has accumulated 2,925,000 shares of Southern Arc and has not sold a single share. Eileen Au recently bought 60,000 shares of EAG. Rhylin Bailie bought 14,500. Celeste Curran bought 150,000.
These people are not stupid people. I've met them all, and can say with confidence that they are not stupid people. Quite the opposite. You can rest assured that they've done the calculations I've presented above. They must understand that a dollar invested in Southern Arc is worth more than a dollar invested in Eagle Hill. So… assigning that basic level of intelligence, these folks would have been crazy to put their money into EAG over SA. I don't see them buying EAG just to send a message to the market that it's a good buy. Not one purchase of SA by insiders in recent months tells me, using very simple logic, that they are restricted against doing so. This, in turn, tells me that something is in the works for West Lombok. If they think that EAG is a deal, at purchase prices as high as 13.5 cents, that price, as an entry point I should say, would peg SA's investment in EAG at 12.1 cents per share, a premium of more than 50% over current price.
Hope this adds value.
Cheers,
Kevin