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Posters weigh in on hurricanes and natural gas

Buzz on the Boards
0 Comments| August 18, 2009

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The price of natural gas continued its fall Tuesday, down two cents to $3.14 as posters on one Stockhouse Bullboard

The Associated Press reports that natural gas prices fell for the ninth straight day on Tuesday, “a reflection of the doubts over a quick rebound for the economy,” with a lack of demand pushing the commodity to seven-year lows.

However, on the Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bull Plus ETF (TSX: T.HNU, Stock Forum) Bullboard, it was news of the first hurricane of the season that had posters talking.

Reuters notes that Hurricane Bill, the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season steered clear of the U.S. Gulf, heading towards Bermuda, while “the remnants of Tropical Storm Ana dissipated without threatening the U.S. Gulf oil patch.”

On the Bullboard, Tgarfield said: “Bill might disrupt fishing but the gulf is probably safe.”

MRSPEC added: “The way things are going Bill will make gas go down”

While, livenlearn explained: “forget about hurricaines guys... only 12% is produced in the gulf nowadays and as you know we have a huge glut of inventory to get rid of.”

Tgarfield shared the following thoughts:

Bill looks like it is not going to get the west coast of florida wet!! NG sold off already because of it. The market got shorted at the top and came down. New shorts listening to fast money last night are currently covering the market up because they shorted too late. I'm long for three reasons. UNG could pressure the october contract up on it's roll. NG has already sold off because there is NO hurrricaine, Opex on friday will not let the market fall very far.

And, techtrader3 commented:

Nat Gas is down 8 days in a row. It hardly seems like Bill was priced into it. Historically, the only time you will see a hurricane affect the price of Nat Gas in a significant way is if forcasts have it tracking into the Gulf. Once it gets in there, they tend to pick up strength and it's a crap shoot as to where it will go. Even then, it needs to be a CAT 3 or higher to disrupt production to affect price that much. 15% of the Nat Gas produced in the US comes from the Gulf. If the reason you're buying into Nat Gas is because it's hurricane season, you're better off to go to the casino and play black jack, it's better odds. That being said, it just takes one hurricane to bugger up the whole supply chain in the south.



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