Average price per hectare of Alberta oil sands crown land sales has fallen by 11% over the past 4 years. On a regional basis Athabasca fell by an average 31%, Cold Lake 2% and despite a price fall in 2011, Peace River still rose by 1% over the period. This is according to data sourced from Calgary-based CanOils’ M&A product which tracks all Alberta Crown oil sand land sales (1).
Prices within the industry remain historically low however when compared to the relatively high 2011 WTI crude price; there has been no boom in prices like that seen with peak crude prices in 2008. One possible reason for this may be due to an oversupply of land to the market by the Alberta Government. Crown lease sales went up from 10,326 hectares in 2010 to 30,183 hectares in 2011 as the Government looks to continue this lucrative income stream. Despite the increase in land sales in 2011 total income from oil sands crown land sales has still tailed off dramatically in recent years.
Last week, Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX: T.CAN, Stock Forum) (NYSE: CVE, Stock Forum) announced it would bring forward the on-stream dates of the next phases of its Christina Lake and Foster Creek projects by six months as big players in the industry continue to push forward with their oil sands development. Independent small and junior companies however are not faring quite as well. In tight money markets, ensuring these companies have the cash flow to continue developing their oil sands properties is proving difficult. Connacher Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSX: T.CLL, Stock Forum) and Alberta Oilsands have both recently disposed of properties to help fund operations, while in November Oilsands Quest entered into creditor protection when the sale of its Wallace Creek property fell through.
In contrast, last week saw CNOOC Ltd. (GREY: CEOHF, Stock Forum) close the acquisition of OPTI Canada Inc. for only $34 million for all outstanding shares, CNOOC agreeing to pay the remainder of OPTI’s outstanding debt, while Connacher Oil & Gas received an unsolicited proposal from an undisclosed party. As small companies scrap for funds, demand for oil sands crown sales has continued to curtail while purchases of developed oil sands assets and corporate deals, have become the preferred entry and acquisition method of the big players.
Since CanOils initiated coverage of Alberta Crown Lease sales in 2003, Sunshine Oilands Ltd. has acquired the most land of all E&P players; 460,435 hectares at an average $142 per hectare. In contrast, Perpetual Energy Inc. paid $41 per hectare, the lowest per hectare price of the top ten E&P acquirers, while Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (TSX: T.CNQ, Stock Forum) (NYSE: CNQ, Stock Forum) who purchased a significant amount of land in the Cold Lake region paid $199 per hectare.
The average price paid by the top ten E&P companies over the period was $715 per hectare. This compares to $5,375 per hectare paid by Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. in September 2011 for Connacher’s ‘undeveloped’ Hangingstone property in the Athabasca region. A simple acquisition comparison on this 9,971 hectare property with the average cost per hectare of crown land sales, suggests a $53.6 million mark up from a crown lease to sale price. Despite this significant mark-up, companies still remain attracted to this merger and acquisition accrual growth strategy over crown lease sales.
Scott Land & Lease, a land service company, acquired more hectares than any E&P company, 1,575,877 hectares at an average price of $742.8 per hectare. Land service companies account for eight of the top ten purchasers of oil sands leases, E&P companies make up the remaining two.
In the period 2003 to 2011, 96% of total revenue for Alberta oil sands crown lease sales was attributed to Athabasca which sold for an average of $745 per hectare. Cold Lake made up only 1% of total income selling at $470 per hectare, while Peace River contributed the remaining 3% at $141 per hectare over the same period.
Of late, Cold Lake has been gaining a premium over the much larger Athabasca region however and location may be one of the reasons for this. Cold Lake is the easiest of the three oil sands regions to transport bitumen production to market - it provides a good network of field gathering systems, feeding into pipeline facilities which connect to refineries across North America. Projects located in Athabasca and Peace River can be much more remote, meaning production may have to be trucked to market or have special access pipelines put in place. Cold Lake formations are also more often suitable for ‘cold flow’ production instead of requiring enhanced recovery steam based recovery processes, which significantly increases start-up and operating costs.
These recent premiums for Cold Lake over Athabasca and Athabasca over Peace River are likely to continue into 2012. As the Alberta Government begins to release its initial January 2012 oil sands land tenders, only time will tell whether the industry will continue the overall downtrend in lease prices into 2012.
(1) CanOils M&A product tracks all Canadian merger and acquisition deals in addition to all Alberta Government Oil Sands Crown Lease Sales. Coverage includes, but is not limited to, Acquirer, Acquisition Cost, Oil Sands Region, Original Source Documentation, Total Land and Value per Acre, Hectare and Section, Location by Alberta Township Reference, Zone Designations (Zone, Interval, Key Well & Log Type) and Surface Rights.
(2) All prices are in Canadian dollars.