Australia-based Independent Investment Research (IIR) is bullish on the outlook for lithium, saying it will be one of the key commodities to watch this year.
“On the battery/specialty metals side, we see lithium trading at around US$8,000 to US$10,000, the company said in its latest review of small and mid-cap stocks.
However, IIR said the forecast could prove to be conservative.
Interest in lithium is driven by expectations of strongly increasing demand, of 5% to 10% annual compounded growth (CAGR) over the coming eight years (largely due to batteries).
Speculation in the sector is related to the increasing application of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, particularly in the automotive sector, as well as the impact on demand of battery manufacturing plants that are being built by
Tesla Motors Ltd. (
NASDAQ: TSLA,
Forum) and others.
IIR said spot prices for battery grade lithium carbonate have more than tripled over the past year to over US$20,000 per tonne, as Chinese battery producers clamour for high quality battery product that is hard to get in China. “We would expect this to be unsustainable, and our view is that prices will trade around US$8,000 to US$10,000 over the longer term, equating to US$500-US$700 of 6.5% spodumene concentrate,’’ the investment firm said.
There is no ready market for lithium. Lithium prices are determined by the purity and chemistry of the material as well as the length of the contract between buyer and seller.
Brines (in salt ponds) and spodumene (hard rock) represent the two main sources of commercial lithium production.
IIR specialises in an independent research firm that does not participate in any corporate or capital raising.